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Discontent about current conditions is rising

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• The Conference Boards Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.4 points in July to 90.8.

• Consumers assessment of current business and employment conditions declined for the third straight month.

• Grocery prices, unemployment, and geopolitical conflicts remained important concerns, although inflation expectations eased.

American consumers became slightly less confident about the economy in July as their views of current business conditions and the job market continued to weaken.

The Conference Boards Consumer Confidence Index declined to 90.8 in July, down 1.4 points from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June. The survey covered July 1 through July 22, a period that included continued conflict in the Middle East.

Consumer confidence moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021, Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in the organizations July consumer confidence report.

The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers views of current business and labor market conditions, fell 3.6 points to 114.9. It was the third consecutive monthly decline.

The Expectations Index, which measures consumers six-month outlook for income, business conditions, and employment, held steady at 74.7. Readings below 80 have historically been associated with an increased risk of recession, according to The Conference Board.

Views of business and employment weaken

Only 18.9% of consumers described current business conditions as good, down from 20.2% in June. At the same time, 17.8% said conditions were bad, up from 16.5%.

Consumers also became less positive about the employment market. The percentage saying jobs were plentiful declined to 24.6% from 25.5%. However, the share saying jobs were hard to get edged down slightly, to 21.5% from 21.7%.

The outlook for the next six months was mixed. About 17.8% expected business conditions to improve, down from 18.9% in June, while 21.1% expected conditions to worsen.

Employment expectations improved modestly but remained negative overall. The percentage expecting more jobs rose to 16.7%, while 25.3% expected fewer jobs.

Consumers were also a little less optimistic about their paychecks. About 20.3% expected their incomes to increase, down from 20.7%, while 13% anticipated a decline.

Grocery prices remain a concern

Consumers written comments about the economy remained mostly pessimistic. References to overall prices and gasoline declined but stayed elevated, while mentions of food and grocery prices increased. Concerns about jobs and unemployment also became slightly more frequent.

Inflation expectations for the coming year eased, but most consumers still expected borrowing costs to rise. More than six in 10 61.3% said they anticipated higher interest rates over the next 12 months.

Confidence varied considerably by age and income. Consumers under 35 remained the most confident, while higher-income households were generally more optimistic. Confidence fell the most among members of the Silent Generation when measured using a six-month moving average.

Despite the more cautious economic outlook, consumers were not retreating from all spending. Plans to buy homes and vehicles continued to rise on a six-month average basis. Consumers also expected to spend more on restaurants, streaming and mobile services, personal care, and domestic travel.

The results suggest consumers remain willing to spend, but growing doubts about business conditions, employment, and household income could make them more selective about where their money goes.

A prolonged Mideast war could create more pain at the pump

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• The national average price of regular gasoline is $4.10 a gallon, according to AAA, continuing a sharp climb over the past three weeks.

• Higher crude oil prices, driven by Middle East supply concerns and shipping disruptions, are expected to keep upward pressure on pump prices into August.

• Analysts say motorists should prepare for additional increases, though the pace will depend on whether oil markets stabilize in the coming weeks.

Americans are paying more at the pump as the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline continues to rise, with little relief expected in the near term.

AAA reports the national average reached $4.10 per gallon as of July 29, up about three cents from a week earlier and more than 25 cents higher than the beginning of July. Most states are now averaging at least $4 a gallon.

The primary driver is the cost of crude oil. Brent crude, the international benchmark, has climbed above $100 a barrel after renewed conflict in the Middle East raised concerns about supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil shipping lanes.

AAA says the recent run-up in crude prices has quickly translated into higher wholesale gasoline costs, forcing retailers to raise prices at the pump.

"Rising crude oil prices are behind the spike at the pump," AAA said in its latest fuel market update, noting that continued volatility in the region could keep prices elevated through the second half of the summer.

More increases likely

The short-term outlook suggests drivers are unlikely to see meaningful relief over the next several weeks.

JPMorgan analysts estimate that if disruptions in Middle East oil exports continue, Brent crude could average at least $100 per barrel or move even higher, with each additional month of disruption adding roughly $7 to $8 per barrel. While the bank does not expect an immediate nationwide return to $5 gasoline, it says prices are likely to remain under upward pressure.

Other energy analysts have issued even more aggressive forecasts. Goldman Sachs has warned Brent could reach $120 a barrel if the conflict persists, while Rapidan Energy projects prices around $110 under a prolonged disruption scenario.

Consumers may feel significant effects

Higher gasoline prices could be just the beginning. Because petroleum is used throughout the economy, rising oil prices can increase transportation costs for groceries, consumer goods and other everyday purchases.

While consumers can't control global oil markets, they can reduce fuel costs by:

Using apps to compare nearby gas prices before filling up.

Keeping tires properly inflated and avoiding aggressive acceleration.

Combining errands to reduce unnecessary driving.

Purchasing fuel early in the week if local prices begin climbing rapidly, since stations often adjust prices after receiving higher-priced deliveries.

Unless geopolitical tensions ease and crude oil prices retreat, analysts expect gasoline prices to remain elevated through at least the next several weeks, making fuel one of the more visible reminders of instability in global energy markets.

Its only the second crisis declaration in the organizations history

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• The American Red Cross has declared only the second national blood supply crisis in its history after donations fell to a four-year summer low.

• The organization has begun limiting distributions of Type O blood to hospitals to preserve supplies for the most critical emergencies.

• Officials say just three additional donors at each blood drive this summer could stabilize the nation's blood supply.

The American Red Cross is warning that the nation's blood supply has fallen to dangerously low levels, prompting only the second national blood supply crisis declaration in the organization's history.

The shortage comes after blood donations dropped to their lowest summer level in four years, leaving hospitals facing increasing pressure to maintain adequate supplies for trauma patients, cancer treatments, surgeries, and other lifesaving procedures.

The Red Cross, which supplies about 40% of the nation's blood, says it now has less than a one-day national supply of Type O positive blood the most commonly transfused blood type.

As a result, it has begun limiting shipments of Type O blood to individual hospitals to ensure enough is available for the most critical, life-threatening emergencies.

"This is only the second national blood supply crisis in our history," the Red Cross said, urging eligible Americans to donate as soon as possible.

Summer brings higher demand

The shortage reflects a combination of rising demand and falling donations.

Summer is traditionally one of the busiest times of year for trauma care, with more injuries occurring between Memorial Day and Labor Day. At the same time, blood donations typically decline because school blood drives end, families travel, and regular donors' schedules are disrupted. This year, extreme heat, poor air quality, and widespread foodborne illnesses have further reduced donor turnout.

The Red Cross says hospitals are requesting nearly 3,500 more units of blood each week than expected, widening the gap between supply and demand.

Earlier this month, the organization declared an emergency blood shortage after the national blood supply fell roughly 25% in June. Despite an increase in donations following that appeal, inventories have continued to decline.

Type O donors especially needed

While donations of all blood types are needed, the Red Cross says the need is especially urgent for people with Type O blood.

Type O negative is known as the universal blood type and is often used in emergencies when there isn't time to determine a patient's blood type. Type O positive is the most frequently transfused blood type and is used extensively in hospitals nationwide.

Platelet donations are also in short supply. Unlike whole blood, platelets have a shelf life of only about five days, making continuous donations essential.

How consumers can help

The Red Cross says the solution is straightforward: more people need to donate.

According to the organization, if just three additional people donated at every blood drive this summer, the national blood supply crisis could end and inventories could return to more stable levels.

Eligible donors can schedule an appointment through the Red Cross Blood Donor App, at RedCrossBlood.org or by calling 1-800-RED CROSS.

To encourage participation, the Red Cross is offering incentives to donors. Those who give blood through July 31 will receive a Fandango movie ticket by email, while donors who give during August will receive a $20 Amazon gift card.

A few seconds of scrutiny could save you from a costly mistake

• AI videos still leave clues. Look for distorted hands, mismatched lip movements, unnatural blinking, or backgrounds that subtly change.

• Be wary of celebrity endorsements. Scammers use AI videos to promote fake shopping sites and steal your money or personal information.

• Always verify before you click. Visit the retailer's official website yourself instead of following links in a video or social media post.

There was a time when seeing a video was enough to believe it. Not anymore.

Artificial intelligence can now generate convincing videos of celebrities or experts endorsing products, as well as ordinary people appearing to recommend websites that don't actually exist. Criminals are increasingly using these tools to lure consumers into fake online stores, bogus investment opportunities, and phishing designed to steal credit card numbers and passwords.

The bad news is that AI-generated videos are getting better every month. The good news is that most videos still leave clues behind, but you gotta know where to look.

With that said, here are some of the easiest ways to tell whether a video is AI or real.

1. Look closely at the hands

Hands remain one of AI's biggest weaknesses. If the hands look wonky, proceed with caution.

While modern AI has improved a ton, videos often still show fingers that briefly merge together, disappear, bend unnaturally, or even change shape from one frame to the next. A person's rings, fingernails, or even the number of fingers may subtly change throughout the video as well.

You usually won't notice these glitches while casually watching. You may need to pause the video or slow it down as it becomes much easier to spot.

Pro tip: Look for consistency. A wedding ring, fingernail color, or even the number of fingers shouldn't change from one shot to the next. If they do, be skeptical. Hands are among the most complex parts of the human body for AI to recreate consistently.

2. Watch the mouth not just the words

Many AI videos look convincing until someone starts talking.

Watch for lips that don't quite match the spoken words, teeth that suddenly change shape, or mouths that appear blurry compared to the rest of the face.

Even high-quality deepfakes sometimes struggle to synchronize speech naturally, especially during fast conversations or when someone turns their head.

3. Check the eyes and blinking

Human eyes move naturally without much thought.

AI-generated people sometimes blink too little, blink at odd times, or have eyes that seem fixed on one spot. Lighting reflections may also shift unnaturally between frames.

None of these signs alone prove a video is fake, but several appearing together should raise your suspicion.

4. Look beyond the person

Scammers want you focused on the face and not necessarily what's happening around it.

So be sure to pay attention to the background. In particular, look at shelves, signs, furniture, and other objects that may subtly warp, change position, or flicker during the video. Jewelry, eyeglasses, clothing patterns, and logos can also morph from one frame to another.

These inconsistencies are often easier to spot than wonky facial irregularities or weird hands.

5. Be skeptical of celebrity endorsements

One of the fastest-growing uses AI versions of celebrities, financial experts, and well-known business leaders.

The video may show a famous person claiming they made millions with a new investment platform or discovered an unbelievable shopping deal.

In reality, that person often never actually recorded the video or even knows that it exists.

Pro tip: Verify. Verify. Verify. If a celebrity appears to be promoting a miracle product or "exclusive" website, verify that its real by going through that person's official website or verified social media account before you believe it.

6. Verify shopping websites before buying

Many AI videos are created with the sole intent of directing shoppers to fake online stores.

The website may look nearly identical to Walmart, Costco, Best Buy, Amazon, Nike, or another trusted retailer. Prices may seem unbelievably low, countdown timers create urgency, and fake customer reviews promise incredible deals.

Before entering your payment information:

• Type the retailer's web address yourself instead of clicking the video link.

• Check that the domain name is spelled correctly.

• Look up the company independently if you've never heard of it.

• Search for reviews outside the website itself.

Shopping remain one of the most common frauds on social media, with many victims reporting that products never arrived or what arrived was nothing like what was advertised.

7. Don't trust video alone

Perhaps the biggest mistake consumers make is assuming that seeing is believing.

Today's AI can generate realistic faces, voices, and conversations in minutes. Voice cloning technology can even make someone sound like a family member or trusted company representative.

And heres where the rubber meets the road. If a video asks you to invest money, purchase gift cards, send cryptocurrency, provide banking information, or click an unfamiliar link, always stop and verify the claim through an official source.

Think of it this way, a legitimate company won't mind if you take a few minutes to confirm you're dealing with the real thing. While a scammer is counting on you NOT to. If something feels off, always trust your gut instinct and investigate further as your gut is usually right.

The bottom line for consumers

This is especially true whenever an online video pressures you to act immediately, it could be a "limited-time sale," an investment opportunity, or an unbelievable clearance event, always pause before clicking.

Visit the retailer's official website yourself instead of following links in the video or its comments. Taking an extra minute to verify where you're shopping could save you from losing your money or exposing your personal information.