Motorists could see another round of increases at the pump if crude remains near triple digits
Brent crude oil climbed above $100 a barrel Wednesday as renewed fighting in the Middle East raised fears of further disruptions to global oil supplies.
The national average price of regular gasoline has already jumped to about $4.22 a gallon, according to AAA, and the latest oil surge could push pump prices higher.
A common rule of thumb suggests every $10 increase in crude oil can eventually add roughly 24 cents to the price of a gallon of gasoline, although refinery conditions and other factors can amplify or soften the increase.
Oil prices crossed a psychologically important threshold Wednesday, with Brent crude rising above $100 a barrel as escalating conflict in the Middle East renewed concerns about the world's oil supply.
Brent, the international benchmark that has a strong influence on U.S. gasoline prices, traded above $100 early Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, was around $95. It was the first time Brent had crossed $100 since late July.
For motorists, the question is how quickly that increase will show up at the gas station.
The answer may be: fairly quickly.
AAA reported Wednesday that the national average price of regular gasoline had reached about $4.22 a gallon, up from $4.15 just a day earlier. Gasoline prices were already under pressure before oil's latest move because of tight supplies and disruptions to refining operations.
What $100 oil could mean at the pump
There is no exact formula connecting crude oil and gasoline prices, but the Energy Information Administration has long used a useful rule of thumb: a $1 increase in the price of a barrel of crude can translate into roughly 2.4 cents a gallon at the pump.
That means a sustained $10 increase in crude could eventually add about 24 cents a gallon to gasoline prices.
The key word is "sustained." A brief spike above $100 isn't necessarily enough to produce a comparable increase in retail gasoline prices. If oil quickly retreats, some of the increase may never reach consumers.
But if Brent remains at or above $100 for several weeks or moves significantly higher motorists could face another noticeable increase.
Gas prices also tend to respond more quickly when oil prices are rising than when they're falling. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis recently examined that familiar "rockets and feathers" effect: pump prices can shoot up rapidly following an oil shock but decline much more slowly afterward.
Why oil is rising
The latest surge is being driven largely by fears about Middle East supplies.
Renewed U.S.-Iran fighting and attacks on energy facilities in Saudi Arabia have increased concerns about shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil transportation routes. Oil flows through the strait have already been sharply reduced during the conflict.
The market's biggest fear is that the conflict could further damage oil production or transportation infrastructure.
Bank of America analysts have suggested oil could trade in a range of roughly $95 to $120 a barrel, with the possibility of a much larger spike if critical infrastructure is damaged.
That makes $100 oil important not because of the number itself, but because of where prices could go next.
Refinery problems are making matters worse
Normally, consumers might expect gasoline prices to begin declining after Labor Day as the summer driving season winds down and refiners switch to less expensive winter gasoline blends.
This year may be different.
The EIA says gasoline supplies are unusually tight because of disruptions to refining operations in Russia, China and the Middle East. U.S. gasoline imports since March have also been running 32% below their five-year average.
Refinery profit margins known as crack spreads are also unusually high. That means motorists aren't dealing only with expensive crude oil. The cost of turning that oil into gasoline is elevated as well.
The combination makes it possible for gasoline prices to remain high even if crude oil stops rising.
What consumers should watch
The biggest factor over the next several weeks will be whether Brent crude stays above $100 or quickly falls back below it.
If tensions ease and oil shipments increase, the normal seasonal decline in gasoline demand could eventually provide motorists some relief.
But if oil remains around $100 or moves toward $110 or $120 the national gasoline average could continue climbing rather than falling as it normally does in autumn.
And the effects won't stop at the gas pump. Higher oil prices raise the cost of diesel and jet fuel, which can eventually increase trucking, delivery and airline costs. Diesel prices are already approaching $6 a gallon nationally.
Photo By CNET
Posted: 2026-09-09 11:42:30








