Regardless of your heating source, youre likely to pay more
of ConsumerAffairsU.S. households are projected to spend an average of $1,030 on heating during the winter of 202627$82 more than last winter.
Heating-oil users face the sharpest increase, at 31.3%, while electric heating costs are forecast to rise 9%.
About one in six households is already behind on utility bills, leaving millions especially vulnerable to higher winter costs.
The air conditioning season is in its final stages. Americans in much of the country can look forward to a couple of months of mild, fall weather and reduced utility bills. But with the arrival of winter, it will be a different story.
The burden of winter heating costs will likely fall hardest on heating-oil customers and families already struggling with utility debt.
The National Energy Assistance Directors Association, or NEADA, projects that average U.S. home-heating expenditures will rise 8.7% during the winter of 202627more than twice the rate of inflation. The typical household is expected to spend approximately $1,030, an increase of $82 from the previous winter. Since the winter of 202122, average heating costs have climbed 23.9%.
The national average, however, conceals major differences by fuel and region.
Households heating with electricity are projected to spend 9% more, while natural-gas customers face an estimated 5.8% increase. Propane expenditures are expected to rise 8.7%. Heating-oil users face the most severe shock: NEADA forecasts a 31.3% increase, reflecting heating oils exposure to volatile global petroleum markets.
Pressure on electric utilities
Electricity costs are under pressure from several directions. Utilities are paying more to finance power plants, transmission projects and other infrastructure. Natural gasan important fuel for electricity generationhas become more expensive, while rapidly growing demand from data centers is adding pressure to the power system. Aging infrastructure and regional capacity constraints are also contributing to higher rates.
NEADA reports that more than 275 electric and natural-gas utilities have increased rates, received approval to do so or proposed increases since 2025. Together, those actions could add more than $101 billion to customer bills through 2028. That suggests this winters increase may be part of a longer-running affordability problem rather than a temporary spike.
Heating-oil customers face a different risk. Their costs are closely tied to crude-oil prices and international supply disruptions. NEADA estimates that heating-oil expenditures have risen 62.1% since the winter of 202122. By comparison, electric-heating costs have increased 35.7%, natural-gas costs 16.9%, while propane expenditures remain 14.7% below their 202122 level.
Weather may offer some relief. NEADAs forecast assumes that El Nio will produce warmer-than-normal conditions across much of the country, reducing the amount of energy households need for heating. But forecasts can change, and a colder winter would push consumptionand billsabove current estimates.
Geography matters
The Northeast is likely to remain the countrys most expensive region for home heating. Its colder climate, relatively high electricity rates and heavier dependence on heating oil expose households to both high consumption and elevated fuel prices.
Midwestern homes often require considerable heat as well, although the regions widespread use of comparatively less-expensive natural gas may soften the financial impact. Propane remains important in rural areas.
The South generally uses less energy for winter heating and has lower electricity prices, but households there can still experience sharp bill increases during an unusual cold spell.
Conditions in the West vary widely, from the milder Pacific Coast to the colder Mountain states.
For that reason, the projected national average of $1,030 should be treated as a planning benchmarknot a prediction of any individual households bill.
A growing affordability crisis
Higher prices arrive at a particularly difficult time. Approximately one in six U.S. households is behind on its utility bills, according to NEADA, and residential utility debt is approaching $23 billion. In 2024, utilities disconnected residential electric service approximately 13.4 million times and natural-gas service about 1.7 million times because of unpaid bills.
The burden is deeply unequal. In 2025, electricity and natural gas spending consumed an estimated 9.86% of income for households in the lowest income quintile, up from 9.38% in 2024. For the wealthiest fifth of households, the corresponding share was only 1.25%.
NEADA is urging Congress to increase funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program from approximately $4 billion to $7 billion. The organization argues that stronger assistance is needed to prevent rising bills from turning into additional debt, unsafe indoor temperatures or utility disconnections.
Photo By CNET
Posted: 2026-09-16 11:29:37
