Crude exports are approaching prewar levels, but disruptions to refineries remain an issue
Oil shipments from the Persian Gulf have rebounded to near prewar levels, easing fears of a prolonged global crude shortage.
U.S. gasoline prices have already begun falling, with the national average dropping below $4.40 a gallon after reaching record September levels.
Drivers could see additional relief in the coming weeks, but disrupted gasoline and diesel shipments and continued Middle East tensions could limit the decline.
There may finally be some good news for motorists who have watched gasoline prices soar because of the conflict in the Middle East.
Oil shipments from the Persian Gulf have recovered to nearly their levels before the latest fighting involving Iran, according to industry reports. The recovery is easing one of the biggest concerns that sent crude oil and gasoline prices sharply higher: that disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would leave millions of barrels of oil unable to reach world markets.
Goldman Sachs estimates Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to about 23.3 million barrels a day, roughly in line with average 2025 levels, according to Business Insider. Increased tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative export routes have contributed to the recovery.
Oil markets are responding. Brent crude, the international benchmark that has a major influence on U.S. gasoline prices, fell about 1% Friday to roughly $101 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude dropped nearly 2% to about $91.
That doesn't mean $3 gasoline is just around the corner, but the improvement could take some of the pressure off prices at the pump.
Gas prices are already falling
AAA reported Friday that the national average price of regular gasoline had fallen to about $4.40 a gallon, down from $4.49 a week earlier. That's still substantially higher than the $4.12 average a month ago and $3.16 a year ago.
September was particularly painful for motorists. AAA said the month's average price was $4.33 a gallon, 50 cents above the previous September record set in 2023.
The combination of recovering Gulf oil shipments, somewhat lower crude prices and declining seasonal gasoline demand could push prices lower during October if those trends continue.
There is usually a delay between a decline in crude prices and what motorists see on gas station signs. The Energy Information Administration has estimated that about half of a change in crude oil prices typically reaches consumers within two weeks, with roughly 80% reflected within four weeks.
As a general rule, the EIA says a sustained $1-a-barrel movement in crude oil translates into about 2.4 cents a gallon in gasoline prices.
That means a sustained $10 decline in crude theoretically could eventually remove roughly 24 cents a gallon of upward pressure on gasoline, although other factors can substantially alter the result.
The problem isn't completely solved
There is an important catch.
While crude oil shipments have recovered dramatically, shipments of refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel have not. The Wall Street Journal reports that Middle East crude exports have nearly returned to prewar levels but refined-product shipments remain about 40% below normal.
That distinction matters to consumers. Crude oil has to be transported to a refinery, turned into gasoline or diesel and then distributed to filling stations. Refinery outages, high shipping costs and shortages of finished fuel can therefore keep gasoline prices elevated even when plenty of crude oil is available.
The problem is particularly apparent in diesel. AAA put the national diesel average at about $6.37 a gallon Friday, only modestly below the record $6.53 reached Sept. 22.
Refining constraints have become an increasingly important part of the current fuel-price shock. Reduced refining capacity and disruptions to Middle Eastern refined-product exports have kept margins high even as crude supplies have improved.
What happens next
For consumers, the return of Persian Gulf crude shipments is an encouraging development because it reduces the immediate threat of a severe worldwide oil shortage.
But it probably won't erase September's gasoline price increases overnight.
If Gulf shipments continue without major disruption and crude prices keep moving lower, motorists should see more of that decline work its way through wholesale markets and eventually to filling stations over the next several weeks.
The biggest wild cards remain the security situation around the Strait of Hormuz, the recovery of Middle Eastern refineries and the return of gasoline and diesel exports.
Photo By CNET
Posted: 2026-10-02 11:55:51









