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Smaller sandwiches, bigger bill: Paneras math problem

• Paneras quiet shrinkflation (smaller portions, cheaper salads, less service) drove customers away and hurt sales

• The new Panera RISE plan promises bigger, better portions, improved ingredients, and more staff in cafes

• If Panera delivers on their promises, you should see fuller salads and sandwiches, less DIY prep, and clearer cheap vs. splurge options

For years, Panera Bread sold itself as the feel-good fast-casual option: warm bread, big salads, clean ingredients and a place you could camp with a laptop. But quietly, something else was happening. Portions got smaller. Salads got cheaper to make. Labor was cut. And customers noticed.

Now Panera is in full damage-control mode, rolling out a new turnaround plan called Panera RISE to reverse years of traffic declines and a 5% sales drop in 2024 that pushed it from the No. 1 fast-casual chain down to No. 3, behind Chipotle and Panda Express.

How Panera shrinkflated its menu

Shrinkflation is when you quietly give customers less while charging the same (or more).

Panera checked several of these boxes:

Smaller sandwiches at higher prices. In some cases, Panera raised prices and shrunk portions while downgrading ingredients. This was seen as a triple whammy for guests who walked in expecting a premium sandwich and got a lighter, less satisfying version instead.

Salads built to save money, not impress. In the summer of 2024, Panera swapped its all-romaine salad base for a cheaper half-romaine, half-iceberg mix. When all of the sudden you see white iceberg lettuce in your salad, it sticks out like a sore thumb.

And guess what? Customers noticed and told the chain exactly what they thought: iceberg looks pale and unappetizing, and the salads felt very skimpy for the price. Panera listened has now reversed course and gone back to romaine-only salads.

Labor-saving shortcuts that felt like DIY. To save prep time, Panera stopped slicing cherry tomatoes and avocados. Guests had to chase whole cherry tomatoes around their bowl and saw a halved avocado plopped in the salad that they had to cut themselves. Panera now says it will start slicing both again in 2026.

Service shrinkflation, too. Like many chains, Panera cut back on front-of-house staff and leaned hard on self-order kiosks. That might look efficient on a spreadsheet, but it meant guests often walked into a caf and couldnt find a single employee to ask for help.

On top of that, Panera is in the middle of a controversial shift away from its longtime fresh dough model. The company is closing all of its fresh-dough facilities and moving to a par-baked bread system, where dough is prepared and partially baked by third-party bakeries, then frozen and shipped to stores to be finished.

Panera insists the bread will be just as good, but the perception is simple for many:theyre charging more while the product feels less special.

What Panera RISE is trying to fix

The new Panera RISE strategy is basically an admission that the shrinkflation era went too far. The plan rests on threepillars:

• Refreshing the menu higher-quality ingredients; salads rebuilt with better greens and more goodies; new drinks to compete with Starbucks-style beverages.
• Igniting value a barbell menu with cheaper options for budget-conscious appetites alongside higher-end items, instead of everything hovering at a painful mid-teens price point.
• Serving guests with excellence reinvesting in front-of-house labor, updating decade-old kiosks, and making sure there are actual humans visible in the caf again.

In plain English, Panera is promising bigger, better portions, better service, and more value overall.

What this means for you, the customer

If Panera follows through, regulars should start to notice the following:

• Salads that look and feel more substantial (and less pale).
• Sandwiches that stop feeling like they were put on a diet.
• Fewer do it yourself prep moments. Your tomatoes and avocados should arrive ready to eat.
• More visible staff and less hunting for a human behind a row of kiosks.
• A clearer split between budget-friendly options and splurge items so you can decide if Panera fits your wallet that day.

But the bigger lesson here is about shrinkflation in general. Panera tried to protect margins by shaving off a little here, a little there. On paper, that seemed smart and efficient. In real life, customers felt the smaller portions and downgraded ingredients. So many stopped trusting the value, and quietly took their money elsewhere.