Adobe's new holiday forecast offers an early roadmap for when shoppers may find the deepest discounts
October 1, 2026
Black Friday is expected to bring the best deals on TVs, toys, apparel, appliances, and furniture.
Cyber Monday should be better for electronics and computers, while Thanksgiving is expected to have the best sporting goods deals.
Shoppers don't need to buy anything yet, but knowing which days favor which products can help them plan ahead.
Yeah, I realize Black Friday is still over a month away, but shoppers who like to plan ahead are already getting a clearer picture of when the best deals could arrive this year.
And despite the name, Black Friday won't necessarily be the best day to buy everything.
Adobe's latest holiday shopping forecast shows that the deepest discounts are expected to fall on different days depending on what you're buying. Sporting goods are expected to be cheapest on Thanksgiving, several big-ticket categories should peak on Black Friday, and electronics and computers may be worth holding off on until Cyber Monday.
In other words, shoppers don't need to start buying now. But they can start figuring out when to buy.
Adobe expects discounts to gradually improve as November progresses, reaching as much as 14% off listed prices in early November and 21% just before Thanksgiving. The deepest discounts up to 30% are expected during Cyber Week, the five-day period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday.
Here's how the calendar is shaping up.
Thanksgiving: Shop sporting goods online
If sporting goods are on your list, Thanksgiving Day could be worth checking online. Specifically, check the website of Dick's, REI, Academy, Walmart, and Amazon.
Adobe expects Thanksgiving Day to have the best sporting goods deals, with discounts in the category expected to peak at 19% during the holiday season.
That doesn't mean every treadmill, set of golf clubs, or camping tent will be cheapest that day. But shoppers who already know what they want can start tracking prices now and see whether Thanksgiving delivers a significant price drop.
Pro tip: Build your cart now, but don't check out. If you already know what you want, put the exact items in your online carts or wish lists. When Black Friday pricing starts, you'll have a quick way to check whether the price really dropped. You wont be stuck trying to remember what it cost weeks earlier.
Black Friday: TVs, toys, clothing, appliances, and furniture
Black Friday still earns its reputation in several major shopping categories. Adobe expects the deepest discounts on TVs, toys, apparel, appliances, and furniture to land on Black Friday, both online and in-store.
The projected peak discounts are worth paying attention to:
Toys could reach 29% off listed prices
TVs and apparel could reach 23% off
Appliances and furniture could reach 18% off
For shoppers buying Christmas gifts for kids, there's another reason not to wait beyond Black Friday: inventory. Holding out for another few dollars in savings doesn't help if the toy is on the popular list and sells out.
The same idea applies to a specific TV, sofa, or appliance. Once the exact model you want reaches a price you're comfortable paying, chasing a theoretically lower price can backfire.
Pro tip: Screenshot the model number, not just the product. This is especially useful with TVs, laptops, and appliances, as some models are made specifically for Black Friday. So, by saving the exact model number (and specs) now, you can make an apples-to-apples comparison later. Otherwise, its easy to fall for a Black Friday discount on a TV only to realize later that it has two measly HDMI ports when you need four.
Cyber Monday: Electronics and computers lead the way
Tech shoppers may want to save some of their budget for Cyber Monday.
Adobe predicts the deepest discounts on electronics and computers will arrive Monday, Nov. 30. Electronics discounts are expected to reach as much as 30% off listed prices, while computers could hit 23%.
But don't ignore apparel. Cyber Monday has traditionally been a strong day for online clothing deals, and retailers aren't likely to suddenly turn off their Black Friday promotions when the weekend ends. Adobe's forecast simply suggests apparel discounts could peak on Black Friday, not that good clothing deals will disappear by Monday.
But keep in mind that Adobe's percentages are simply category-wide forecasts. They don't guarantee that a particular laptop, smartphone, or pair of headphones will be cheapest on Cyber Monday.
What shoppers can do now
There's no reason to start panic-buying Christmas gifts in September.
But there is an advantage to doing a little homework early.
Make a list of the specific products you're considering. The benefit here is that you can get familiar with what they normally sell for. That gives you a baseline when the holiday promotions begin and makes it easier to distinguish a genuinely good deal from a flashy "Black Friday" label.
Compare exact model numbers across retailers. This is particularly important with TVs and appliances, where nearly identical products can have different features.
Check retailers' price-adjustment and return policies before buying. A generous policy can make purchasing an early deal less risky if the price falls later.
The biggest takeaway from Adobe's forecast isn't that shoppers should buy early or wait until one particular day. It's that Black Friday is really becoming a multi-day shopping event and the best day to buy depends on what's on your list.
