Oil price spike tied to conflict involving Iran raises fears of supply disruptions
March 10, 2026
-
The nations average price of gasoline has risen 51.1 cents over the last week and stands at $3.45 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations nationwide.
-
The national average is up 54.1 cents from a month ago and 41.6 cents higher than a year ago.
-
The national average price of diesel jumped 85.9 cents in the last week to $4.599 per gallon.
U.S. motorists are facing one of the sharpest weekly increases in fuel prices in years as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East send shockwaves through global energy markets.
According to GasBuddy data, gasoline prices surged more than 50 cents per gallon in just a week after oil prices spiked following U.S. strikes on Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane for global oil supplies. The sudden escalation has injected significant uncertainty into energy markets and raised concerns about prolonged supply disruptions.
In just a week, consumers have seen gasoline prices surge at one of the fastest rates in years after oil prices spiked following U.S. strikes on Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
With additional attacks across the Middle East over the weekend pushing oil above $100 per barrel for the first time in years, fuel markets are now rapidly recalibrating to the risk of prolonged disruption to global supply flows.
De Haan warned that prices may climb even further in the coming days. Gasoline prices in many states could rise another 20 to 50 cents per gallon this week, while diesel could jump by as much as 35 to 75 cents as global distillate markets react to the heightened risk.
Oil prices surge on Middle East tensions
Crude oil prices climbed over the past week as escalating tensions between Iran and Israel heightened fears of a broader regional conflict. Traders are particularly focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which a large share of the worlds oil shipments pass.
In early Monday trading, West Texas Intermediate crude rose $5.39 per barrel to $72.41, up from $66.85 a week earlier. Brent crude increased $6.42 to $79.29 per barrel compared with $72.08 last Monday.
Energy markets had already been supported by geopolitical concerns and inventory data earlier in the week, but the latest escalation added a new risk premium and increased volatility. Analysts say developments involving Iran, especially any threat to production or shipping routes, are likely to remain the primary driver of oil prices in the near term.
Mixed signals in U.S. fuel supply data
The latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows mixed trends in domestic fuel inventories.
U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels in the week ending Feb. 27 but remain about 3% below the seasonal average for this time of year. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels but are still roughly 3% above the five-year seasonal average. Distillate inventories which include diesel edged up by 0.4 million barrels but remain about 3% below typical seasonal levels.
Refinery utilization increased slightly to 89.2%, while implied gasoline demand fell by 442,000 barrels per day to 8.292 million barrels per day.
Gas price patterns across the country
Despite the rapid national increase, prices vary widely depending on location.
The most common price motorists encountered nationwide was $3.19 per gallon, followed by $2.99, $3.49, $3.29, and $3.39. The median U.S. gas price stood at $3.29 per gallon, about 16 cents below the national average.
Stations in the top 10% of prices averaged $4.93 per gallon, while those in the lowest 10% averaged $2.88.
The lowest average gasoline prices were reported in Kansas ($2.90), Oklahoma ($2.95), and Arkansas ($2.98). The highest prices were in California ($5.14), Washington ($4.58), and Hawaii ($4.33).
Several states saw particularly large weekly increases, including Indiana (+57.8 cents), Florida (+57.2 cents), Michigan (+55.3 cents), Ohio (+54.6 cents), and California (+51.1 cents).
Diesel prices spike even more
Diesel prices have climbed even faster than gasoline in the past week, reflecting tighter global distillate supplies and strong freight demand.
The most common diesel price nationwide rose to $4.99 per gallon, followed by $4.49, $4.69, $4.59, and $4.29. The median diesel price reached $4.59 per gallon, about six cents below the national average.
The lowest average diesel prices were found in Texas ($3.93), Kansas ($3.95), and South Dakota ($3.99). The highest averages were in California ($5.87), Washington ($5.46), and Hawaii ($5.18).
States experiencing the largest diesel price spikes included Texas (+$1.11), North Carolina (+$1.10), Tennessee (+$1.10), Georgia (+$1.07), and Mississippi (+$1.04).
With tensions in the Middle East continuing to evolve, analysts say motorists should brace for additional volatility at the pump in the weeks ahead as global energy markets react to the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
