Mortgage rates are at the lowest level in three years
January 16, 2026
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Mortgage payments on a typical home are projected to be affordable in 20 of the nations 50 largest metro areas by the end of 2026, up from far fewer in recent years, with Chicago, Atlanta and Raleigh newly joining the list.
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Affordability is expected to improve in nearly every major housing market this year, with Hartford, Connecticut, the lone exception even as Zillow forecasts it will be the hottest market of 2026.
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Nationwide monthly mortgage costs have dropped $92 from a year ago and are down $177 from their peak in October 2023, offering buyers modest but meaningful relief.
Freddie Mac reports its Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.06% this week, the lowest level in three years.
The impacts are noticeable, as weekly purchase applications and refinance activity have jumped, underscoring the benefits for both buyers and current owners, said Sam Khater, Freddie Macs chief economist. Its clear that housing activity is improving and poised for a solid spring sales season.
In fact, a new Zillow forecast shows mortgage affordability is slowly returning to the U.S. housing market, due to improving incomes, easing mortgage rates and subdued home price growth.
By the end of 2026, Zillow expects a mortgage payment on a typical home to consume no more than 30% of median household income in 20 major metropolitan areas the most affordable metros since 2022. The company defines affordability using the long-standing benchmark that housing costs above 30% of income represent a financial burden.
Improving affordability
At the national level, a typical mortgage payment currently takes up about 32.6% of median household income, the best reading since August 2022. Zillow projects that share will fall further to 31.8% by the end of the year, moving closer to pre-pandemic norms, when housing costs generally ranged between 22.5% and 26.5% of income.
This is what a small-wins year looks like for housing, said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow. Rising incomes, subdued price growth, and gradually easing mortgage rates would help buyers regain their footing while allowing homeowners to continue building wealth.
The improvement follows several turbulent years for the housing market. Home prices surged beginning in 2020, while sharply higher mortgage rates in 2022 pushed affordability to historic lows. By October 2023, the typical mortgage required 38.2% of median household income, and only seven of the nations largest metro areas were considered affordable for buyers.
The typical mortgage payment
Conditions have since eased. Using an average mortgage rate of 6.2% in December and assuming a 20% down payment, Zillow estimates the monthly cost of a typical U.S. home is now about $2,337, including taxes, insurance and maintenance. That figure is lower than a year ago and well below the peak reached in late 2023. If Zillows outlook holds, monthly payments may edge slightly higher by year-end, but affordability would still improve as incomes rise.
Zillows forecast assumes mortgage rates drift toward 6%, home values increase a modest 1.9% nationally, and household incomes grow about 3.3% this year. Even with those gains, the down payment remains a significant hurdle: a 20% down payment on the typical home already approaches $72,000 and is expected to rise further.
Where affordability is changing
Affordability gains are expected across most of the country, including in markets where home values are still rising. Chicago, Atlanta and Raleigh are projected to cross into affordable territory by the end of the year, while dozens of other metros are expected to see incremental improvement.
Hartford stands apart. Zillow expects affordability there to worsen slightly in 2026, driven by strong price growth, even as the company predicts the metro will be the hottest housing market in the nation.
Zillow notes that buyers can improve their own affordability by exploring down payment assistance programs and carefully matching their home search to current mortgage rates. Tools that track rates and monthly costs, the company says, can help buyers stay within budget and compete without stretching their finances too far.
While the gains may be modest, Zillow suggests they represent a healthier, more sustainable path forward for a housing market still recovering from years of volatility.