Millions of Americans face a health insurance crisis in 2026
December 30, 2025
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States including California, Colorado and Maryland are stepping in after Congress failed to renew enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies.
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Most state efforts will only cover a fraction of residents facing sharp premium increases or loss of coverage.
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Lawmakers warn state budgets cannot replace federal aid indefinitely, raising pressure on Congress to act.
At least a dozen states are scrambling to protect residents from soaring health insurance costs after Congress adjourned without extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies that helped tens of millions of Americans afford coverage.
While states from California to Maryland have announced stopgap measures, nearly all acknowledge the same limitation: They lack the resources to fully replace the expired federal assistance, leaving many people exposed to higher premiums or loss of coverage.
We can carry the cost for a little bit, but at some point, we will need Congress to act, said Javier Martnez, speaker of the New Mexico House, in a Politico report. New Mexico is the only state so far to fully cover all lapsed subsidies. No state can withstand plugging every single budget hole that the Trump administration leaves behind.
Some states move quickly as coverage losses loom
The speed of the mostly Democratic-led state response reflects growing concern about the medical and political fallout from the subsidy expiration. Millions of Americans are expected to struggle to afford insurance, potentially straining already stressed state welfare programs and hospital systems.
State responses have varied widely. Georgia and Washington state are unlikely to replace the subsidies, though for different reasons, while states such as Connecticut and New Mexico moved earlier this year to allocate funds in anticipation of congressional inaction.
California, anticipating that a GOP-led Congress would allow the subsidies to expire, was among the first to act. The state is allocating nearly $200 million to replace lost federal subsidies for about 300,000 of its lowest-income residents. Even so, the majority of the states roughly 2 million marketplace enrollees remain vulnerable.
Covered California, as the state's program is called,estimates as many as 400,000 people could go uninsured. In Maryland, which faces a smaller affected population, the poorest residents will receive enhanced assistance, while higher-income enrollees will see more limited relief.
Political and budget constraints shape responses
In battleground states such as Maine, some lawmakers worry that state-funded solutions could reduce pressure on Congress to pass a federal fix, though many say immediate coverage concerns outweigh that risk.
Partisan divides remain stark. While blue states have been far more likely to intervene, some Republican-led states are quietly taking regulatory steps to soften the blow.Texas and Wyoming have adoptedpremium alignment, a market strategy designed to stretch remaining federal subsidies and reduce out-of-pocket costs.
Most states, however, have taken no action, including both conservative states opposed to the Affordable Care Act and some progressive-led states facing fiscal or political barriers.
Cost proves the biggest obstacle
In states weighing whether to act when legislatures reconvene in January, cost remains the central hurdle. In Minnesota, efforts to replace the subsidies have drawn opposition from both parties.Washington state officials citeda budget shortfall as the reason their state cannot step in.
In states with budget surpluses, politics rather than money often blocks intervention.States that never expanded Medicaid face especially severe consequences, with hundreds of thousands of residents at risk of losing coverage entirely.
Pressure builds on Congress
As states debate whether and how to intervene, many lawmakers stress that state-level fixes are temporary at best.
This is a matter of life or death, Georgia Democratic Rep. Sam Parksaid. Peoples lives are on the line. We all have a responsibility to do what we can with what we have.
For now, the patchwork response leaves millions of Americans facing an uncertain future and intensifies pressure on Congress to revisit the issue when lawmakers return to Washington.