A lack of new inventory may provide a headwind for buyers in 2026
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New listings of U.S. homes for sale fell 1.7% year over year in the four weeks ending Dec. 7, marking the sharpest decline in more than two years, according to a new report from Redfin.
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Pending home sales dropped 4.1%, the biggest annual decline in 10 months, as buyers remain cautious amid economic uncertainty and high housing costs.
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Homes are taking longer to sell, with the typical property going under contract after 51 daysabout a week slower than a year ago.
Recent housing forecasts have been bullish or buyers in 2026, suggesting an improvement in home affordability. But new data from real estate broker Redfin may be clouding that rosy forecast.
Redfin reports new listings of homes across the U.S. are slipping at the fastest pace in over two years as both buyers and sellers pull back during what is shaping up to be a subdued end-of-year housing market. Fewer homes on the market reduces the advantage for buyers, at least heading into the new year.
According to Redfin, the slowdown reflects a mix of normal seasonal patterns and broader hesitation, tied to affordability challenges and lingering economic concerns.
Redfin reports that just under 62,700 new listings hit the market during the four-week period ending Dec. 7, down 1.7% from a year earlier. While late fall and early winter are typically slower for housing, the decline is being amplified by weak buyer demand. Pending home sales fell to about 64,000, down 4.1% year over year, signaling that fewer deals are moving toward completion.
The homes that do sell are lingering on the market for longer periods of time. The median time on market rose to 51 days, six days more than last year, underscoring the cooling pace of transactions. Fewer homes are selling above list price, and sellers are accepting slightly lower sale-to-list price ratios than a year ago.
Affordability remains an issue
Buyers, meanwhile, continue to grapple with high costs. The median home-sale price rose 2% from a year earlier to about $389,000, even as demand softened. Redfin attributes the continued price growth partly to tightening inventory, with active listings up just 4.6% the smallest increase since early 2024 and months of supply hovering near a balanced-market level of 4.6 months.
Mortgage rates have offered some relief, but not enough to spark a rebound. The weekly average 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.19%, its lowest level in more than a year, yet it remains well above the ultra-low levels that fueled earlier buying booms. Mortgage-purchase applications were up sharply from a year ago but dipped slightly week over week, reflecting ongoing volatility in buyer interest.
Some would-be sellers are sitting tight because the market is flat, said Josh Felder, a Redfin Premier agent in San Francisco. He noted that both sellers and buyers are waiting for clearer signals on interest rates, the stock market, and broader economic policies. Some homeowners will put their home on the market in 2026 when they have a better idea of how the economy will shape up.
Regional trends
Regional trends show wide variation. Prices jumped by double digits in metros such as Detroit and Pittsburgh, while cities including Dallas, Seattle, and Sacramento posted significant declines.
Pending sales surged in parts of South Florida but plunged sharply in tech-heavy markets like San Jose and Oakland. New listings increased in Northeastern metros such as Boston and Philadelphia, even as they dropped steeply across parts of Texas and Florida.
Taken together, the data point to a housing market ending the year in a holding pattern, with cautious buyers, hesitant sellers, and modest price growth driven more by limited supply than strong demand.
Posted: 2025-12-15 14:15:32















