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Economists see limited economic upside, modest risks from Trumps Venezuela action

By James R. Hood of ConsumerAffairs
January 4, 2026

  • Economists say President Trumps move against Venezuela is unlikely to deliver meaningful near-term economic gains, particularly in global oil supply.

  • Most expect only modest, short-lived pressure on oil prices, with broader inflation effects limited but not zero.

  • Longer-term outcomes hinge on political stability and investment factors analysts say remain highly uncertain.


President Trumps aggressive action against Venezuela has injected fresh geopolitical risk into global markets, but economists and energy analysts say the economic consequences are likely to be more muted and more complicated than the administrations rhetoric suggests.

The immediate focus has been on oil. Venezuela holds the worlds largest proven crude reserves, and the U.S. move has raised questions about whether Washington could ultimately unlock new supply or reshape global energy flows. Most economists, however, caution that Venezuelas current production is too low and its infrastructure too degraded to materially alter markets anytime soon.

In any case, any short-term disruption to Venezuelan output can easily be offset by increased production elsewhere, Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, said in a research note cited by Reuters. Any medium-term recovery in Venezuelan supply would be dwarfed by shifts among the major producers.

Oil prices could rise modestly on heightened geopolitical tension alone, analysts say, but global supply conditions are likely to cap gains. OPEC+ spare capacity, strong U.S. production, and slowing demand growth in parts of the world all act as buffers against sustained price spikes.

Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, said markets may briefly price in a risk premium tied to uncertainty around Venezuela, but fundamentals still dominate.

Prices may see modest upside on heightened geopolitical tensions and disruption risks linked to Venezuela, Hansen said, but ample global supply should continue to cap those risks for now.

Little immediate impact

For U.S. consumers, economists generally expect little immediate impact on gasoline prices. Any inflationary effects would more likely show up indirectly, particularly in diesel markets. Venezuelan crude is heavy and sulfur-rich, the kind favored by some U.S. Gulf Coast refineries for diesel production.

If heavy crude supplies tighten, diesel prices tend to feel it first, said Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy. That can ripple through freight, agriculture, and shipping, even if gasoline prices dont surge.

De Haan and others emphasize that Venezuelas oil sector has been deteriorating for years, long before the latest U.S. action.

Venezuelas oil infrastructure wasnt suddenly damaged its been decaying for many, many years, De Haan said. Rebuilding it would take time, stability, and massive investment.

That reality undercuts the idea that U.S. involvement could quickly bring large volumes of Venezuelan oil back onto the market. Analysts at major banks and research firms say restoring production to levels that would matter globally would likely take years, not months, and would require legal clarity and political legitimacy that investors currently lack.

Theres a tendency to confuse control with capacity, said one energy economist who tracks Latin America. Even if the U.S. gains leverage over Venezuelas oil sector, barrels dont magically reappear.

Geopolitical effects more likely

Some strategists argue the real economic impact may be geopolitical rather than immediate. By weakening Venezuelas ties to China and Russia two major buyers of Venezuelan crude in recent years the U.S. could alter longer-term energy alliances. But economists stress that such outcomes are speculative and highly contingent.

Marko Papic of BCA Research has described the situation as one where markets may price in uncertainty even without concrete supply changes a kind of geopolitical risk premium that reflects fear more than fundamentals.

Still, many economists warn that prolonged instability or expanded sanctions could carry broader economic costs. Historical research on sanctions suggests they tend to deepen economic contraction in targeted countries without reliably producing political change, often worsening humanitarian conditions and accelerating migration.

Increased economic pressure typically reduces government revenue, but it also raises the likelihood of emigration and regional spillovers, said one sanctions researcher. Those effects dont stay neatly contained.

For the U.S. economy, however, most economists agree the stakes are relatively limited. Growth effects are expected to be negligible, inflation risks modest, and energy markets resilient.

The global oil market is far less vulnerable to single-country shocks than it once was, Shearing said.

In short, economists see Trumps Venezuela action as a geopolitical gamble with uncertain long-term implications but few expect it to meaningfully reshape oil markets or deliver quick economic wins.




Posted: 2026-01-04 22:24:07

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Consumer News: Americans now think they need this number to retire — but don't panic
Tue, 18 Aug 2026 19:07:11 +0000

The retirement magic number just jumped $200,000

By Kyle James of ConsumerAffairs
August 18, 2026
  • Americans now think they'll need $1.46 million to retire comfortably, up $200,000 from last year, as retirement anxiety grows.

  • Your actual retirement target depends on your spending, lifestyle, retirement age, and other income.

  • Calculate your own number instead, using rules like 25x or 4%, then factor in Social Security, pensions, and other expected income.


How much money do you need to retire comfortably? According to Americans, the answer is now $1.46 million.

That's the average amount U.S. adults believe they'll need for a comfortable retirement, according to Northwestern Mutual's 2026 Planning & Progress Study. The number jumped $200,000 from last year's $1.26 million, an increase of nearly 16%, and returned to the same $1.46 million estimate reported in 2024.

The survey also reveals plenty of retirement anxiety. Nearly half of Americans (46%) don't expect to be financially prepared for retirement, while 48% believe they're somewhat or very likely to outlive their savings.

But before you look at your 401(k) balance and panic, there's something important to understand: You don't necessarily need $1.46 million to retire.

Your retirement number is personal

The $1.46 million figure isn't a recommendation. It's what surveyed Americans believe they'll need.

Northwestern Mutual itself says there is no universal retirement number. How much you'll actually need depends on factors including when you retire, where you live and the lifestyle you want. The company suggests replacing roughly 80% of your pre-retirement income as one starting point.

In other words, someone who owns a paid-off home and plans a relatively inexpensive retirement may need considerably less than someone carrying a mortgage and planning to travel extensively.

Instead of obsessing over $1.46 million, calculate a target based on your spending.

Three quick ways to estimate your number

The study offers several useful rules of thumb.

  1. Try the 25x rule. Estimate how much you'll need to spend each year in retirement and multiply it by 25. If you expect to need $50,000 annually, for example, that produces a savings target of roughly $1.25 million.

  2. Use the $1,000-a-month rule. Northwestern Mutual says every $1,000 of desired monthly retirement spending translates to roughly $300,000 in savings. So $4,000 per month would point toward about $1.2 million.

  3. Consider the 4% rule. This rule suggests withdrawing 4% of your savings during your first year of retirement, then adjusting that dollar amount for inflation in subsequent years. At $1.46 million, that translates to roughly $58,000 in first-year withdrawals. These are rules of thumb rather than guarantees, and actual results depend on factors such as investment returns and how long you live.

Don't forget income you'll already have

Your retirement savings don't necessarily have to pay every bill. When estimating how much you'll need from your nest egg, dont forget about your expected income such as Social Security or a pension.

Start with your estimated monthly retirement expenses, subtract the income you know youll be getting, then you can determine how much of your savings youll need to fill the gap.

By doing it this way, youll get a much more useful number than simply aiming for $1.46 million because a survey says so.

More Americans expect to keep working

One finding from the study also suggests retirement itself is changing.

About 41% of Americans say they're planning to work or are already working during retirement. Among millennials and Gen X, that figure reaches 50%.

Money isn't the only reason. While 47% say they'll need the additional income to afford retirement, 56% say working will help them continue feeling useful or stimulated.

What to do now

Rather than getting intimidated by a seven-figure national average, take 15 minutes and calculate your own number.

Estimate your annual retirement expenses, subtract expected Social Security and other reliable income, then use a rule such as 25x to establish a rough savings target.

Then compare that number with what you're currently on track to save. If there's a gap, the solution doesn't have to be finding another million dollars overnight. Increasing your retirement contribution even a few percentage points, capturing your full employer 401(k) match, reducing expected retirement expenses or working a little longer can all change the math.

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Consumer News: Energy drinks can give you a boost — but your heart may pay the price
Tue, 18 Aug 2026 16:07:12 +0000

A cardiologist explains how these drinks affect your body

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs
August 18, 2026
  • Energy drinks can contain anywhere from 80 to 400 milligrams or more of caffeine per can, along with sugar and other stimulants that may affect the heart and blood vessels.

  • Research cited by a UTHealth Houston cardiologist found that a large energy drink can impair blood vessels ability to expand within just 90 minutes.

  • Healthy adults should keep total caffeine consumption below 400 milligrams a day, while children, teens, and certain higher-risk adults should avoid energy drinks, according toa cardiologist.


That energy drink promising to get you through an afternoon slump may do more than make you feel awake.

Energy drinks typically combine caffeine with sugar and ingredients such as taurine, guarana, ginseng, and B vitamins. While that mixture can temporarily increase alertness, it can also raise heart rate and blood pressure and affect how blood vessels function, according to Dr. John Higgins, a professor of medicine and sports cardiology at McGovern Medical School at UTHealth Houston.

Caffeine works by blocking adenosine, a chemical in the brain involved in making us feel tired. Its effects can kick in within 30 to 120 minutes and persist for hours, depending on factors such as genetics and a person's tolerance to caffeine.

Some energy drinks also pack a significant amount of sugar 50 grams or more in a single can, according to Higgins. That can contribute to a short-lived energy boost followed by a crash.

The ingredients aren't always straightforward

Consumers looking at the label may find more than caffeine.

Guarana and yerba mate, for example, can add additional caffeine. Other ingredients can include taurine and stimulants such as yohimbine, which Higgins says may increase anxiety, blood pressure, and the risk of heart rhythm problems.

Proprietary blends can make it more difficult to determine exactly how much of an individual ingredient a drink contains because manufacturers may disclose the combined weight of several ingredients rather than the amount of each one.

And those enormous doses of B vitamins advertised on some cans aren't necessarily providing extra energy. Higgins says taking far more than the recommended daily amount won't produce additional energy in someone who isn't deficient.

Your blood vessels may react quickly

The potential cardiovascular effects are one of the bigger concerns.

Research cited by Higgins found energy drinks increased systolic blood pressure by about 4.4 mmHg on average. Another trial found that an energy drink produced greater changes in the heart's electrical activity than caffeine alone, suggesting that the combination of ingredients may matter.

Higgins' own research has found effects on blood vessel function. In one study involving healthy young adults, consuming a large energy drink reduced the blood vessels' ability to relax and expand by nearly half within 90 minutes.

Another finding cited by Higgins involved a 24-ounce energy drink. A measure of artery function known as peak flow-mediated dilation dropped from 5.9% to 1.9% after 90 minutes despite relatively little change in participants' heart rate and blood pressure.

That means a person might not necessarily feel that something is happening to their cardiovascular system.

Severe reactions aren't the norm, but cases involving irregular heart rhythms, chest pain, and cardiac arrest have been associated with heavy or rapid energy-drink consumption, particularly among people with underlying heart problems.

More common side effects include headaches, jitters, insomnia, nausea, and heart palpitations. One survey cited by Higgins found that more than half of young people who consumed energy drinks reported at least one adverse reaction.

How much is too much?

There's no universal answer because caffeine content varies enormously. One can may contain about 80 milligrams while another can pack 400 milligrams or more.

Higgins recommends healthy adults limit their total caffeine intake from all sources to less than 400 milligrams per day. That includes coffee, tea, soda, supplements, pre-workout products, and energy drinks. He also advises against combining several stimulant-containing products during the same day or mixing energy drinks with alcohol.

Children and teenagers should avoid energy drinks entirely, Higgins says. Women who are pregnant or breastfeeding, have high blood pressure or heart conditions, or are particularly sensitive to caffeine should also avoid them.

Consumers should also remember that energy drinks and sports drinks aren't the same thing. Sports drinks are intended to replace fluids and electrolytes, while energy drinks contain stimulants and shouldn't be used primarily for hydration.

Finally, some symptoms warrant immediate attention. Higgins says people should stop consuming caffeine and seek medical help if they experience chest pain, fainting, a racing or irregular heartbeat, severe shortness of breath, confusion, or seizures.


Energy drinks can give you a boost — but your heart may pay the price

Photo By CNET

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Consumer News: Why is Google buying defunct Spirit Airlines’ internal data?
Tue, 18 Aug 2026 16:07:12 +0000

The company said it plans to use it to train AI

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs
August 18, 2026
  • Google agreed to pay $10 million for a massive collection of Spirit Airlines internal business data, including employee emails, Microsoft Teams chats, spreadsheets, calendars and operational information.

  • The companies say customer information and personally identifiable information will be excluded, with the data de-identified by a third party before Google receives it.

  • Even with those safeguards, the unusual sale raises privacy questions for former Spirit employees whose workplace communications could ultimately be used to help develop and train Googles AI systems.


Google is preparing to spend $10 million on an unusual asset from bankrupt Spirit Airlines: its data.

The technology giant won a bankruptcy auction for a vast collection of the airlines internal digital records, including roughly 100 million emails and 500 million Microsoft Teams chats, according to reports on court filings. The package also includes documents, spreadsheets, calendar information, software and data related to areas such as marketing, productivity and airline operations.

Google has said the information could be used to improve its products and train artificial intelligence models. The transaction still requires bankruptcy court approval, with a hearing scheduled for Aug. 19.

The deal illustrates how valuable private corporate information is becoming as technology companies seek new sources of data for AI development. But it also raises an important question: What happens to the privacy of the people whose emails and workplace conversations are part of the dataset?

What data is Google getting?

This isn't primarily a database of passenger records.

The assets reportedly include Spirit employees emails, Teams conversations, calendars and spreadsheets, along with business and operational information. Google outbid AI data company Mercor, which offered $7.5 million for the assets.

That distinction matters for consumers. Reports on the proposed transaction say customer information and personally identifiable information will not be included in the data Google ultimately receives. A third party is expected to de-identify the material before the transfer is completed.

"We acquired part of an enterprise dataset from Spirit Airlines, which can be helpful in improving our products and AI models," a Google spokesperson said in a statement.

"We will not receive any personal information from this dataset. Any data we receive will be rigorously scrubbed of any personally identifiable information by a third party before receipt."

That means travelers shouldn't assume Google is purchasing a database containing their names, credit card numbers or individual booking histories. Based on the publicly reported terms of the deal, those types of customer records are supposed to be excluded.

So, are there privacy concerns?

Potentially but they are different from the most obvious concern that Google might suddenly receive millions of Spirit passengers personal details.

Complicated privacy issue

The more complicated privacy issue involves employees and other people who may appear in Spirit's internal communications.

Workplace emails and chat messages can contain names, opinions, personnel discussions, conversations with vendors and other information that wasn't necessarily written with the expectation that it would someday become training material for another company's AI systems.

De-identification should substantially reduce that risk if it is done effectively. But removing obvious identifiers such as names and email addresses doesn't necessarily eliminate every possibility that a person could be identified from context, particularly across an enormous collection of interconnected communications.

There is also a broader question of expectations. Employees generally understand that workplace communications belong to their employer and may be retained or reviewed. Selling hundreds of millions of those communications as an asset in bankruptcy for AI development is a considerably less familiar use.

The scale makes the issue particularly significant: reported figures put the collection at about 100 million emails and 500 million Teams conversations.

Consumers have reason to pay attention

Spirit has faced privacy litigation before, although it is unrelated to Google's proposed purchase.

In May, a federal appeals court addressed a lawsuit alleging that Spirit used third-party "session replay" software capable of recording website visitors' interactions. The court upheld dismissal because the plaintiffs had not adequately established a concrete privacy injury, while modifying the dismissal to be without prejudice.

That case does not establish that Google's data purchase creates a privacy violation. It does, however, demonstrate how questions about what companies collect, how information is used and what constitutes a legally recognizable privacy injury can become complicated quickly.

A new kind of asset in bankruptcy

Perhaps the biggest significance of Google's purchase is what it says about the value of corporate data itself.

Bankrupt companies traditionally sell aircraft, real estate, intellectual property and other tangible or clearly defined assets to repay creditors. The Spirit auction suggests years of internal emails, chats and operational records can also carry a multimillion-dollar price tag particularly when AI companies are looking for large collections of real-world information unavailable on the public internet.

Google's $10 million bid also wasn't uncontested. Mercor's competing $7.5 million offer demonstrates that more than one AI company saw substantial value in the dataset.


Why is Google buying defunct Spirit Airlines’ internal data?

Photo By CNET

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Consumer News: Bond yields are rising: For consumers, that’s good and bad news
Tue, 18 Aug 2026 16:07:12 +0000

Borrowing costs are rising, but so is the return on savings

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs
August 18, 2026
  • Long-term Treasury yields are climbing to levels not seen in years, as investors worry about inflation, higher government borrowing, and geopolitical risks.

  • Higher yields can make mortgages and other loans more expensive, putting additional pressure on consumers already facing elevated borrowing costs.

  • There is an upside: Savers and investors can earn more on Treasurys and may continue to find attractive rates on CDs and high-yield savings accounts.


Treasury bond yields are climbing sharply, and the move could show up in consumers finances in ways that are both painful and potentially profitable.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was around 4.74% Tuesday, near its highest level since early 2025, while the 30-year yield climbed above 5.2%, reaching its highest level since 2007.

That matters well beyond Wall Street. Treasury yields act as a benchmark for borrowing costs throughout the economy, influencing everything from mortgage rates to corporate borrowing. They can also affect how much consumers earn on relatively safe places to keep their money.

Why are Treasury yields rising?

Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. When investors sell Treasury bonds, their prices fall and their yields rise. Right now, investors are demanding more compensation to hold long-term government debt.

One reason is inflation.

Oil prices have climbed amid continuing conflict involving the U.S. and Iran and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy costs can feed into transportation, manufacturing, and ultimately consumer prices, raising concerns that inflation could remain elevated.

Inflation is particularly important for long-term bonds because it erodes the purchasing power of the fixed payments investors receive. If investors believe inflation will be higher in the future, they generally demand higher yields to compensate for that risk.

Another concern is government borrowing.

The federal government continues to run large budget deficits, requiring the Treasury to issue substantial amounts of debt. Investors may demand higher yields when the supply of bonds increases, particularly if they become concerned about the government's longer-term fiscal trajectory.

The federal budget deficit reached $432 billion in July, up 48% from a year earlier, according to Treasury data cited by FXStreet.

The selloff also isn't confined to the United States. Government bond yields in Germany, Japan, and other major economies have risen sharply, suggesting investors around the world are reassessing inflation, government debt, and the returns they require for lending money over long periods.

The bad news: Borrowing could stay expensive

For consumers, the most immediate downside is housing.

Mortgage rates aren't set directly by the Federal Reserve. Instead, 30-year fixed mortgage rates tend to move with longer-term bond yields, particularly the 10-year Treasury.

That means a sustained increase in Treasury yields can put upward pressure on mortgage rates even without the Fed raising its benchmark interest rate.

For prospective homebuyers, that can significantly change affordability. A higher mortgage rate increases the monthly payment on the same house and can reduce how much buyers can comfortably borrow.

It is also unwelcome news for homeowners waiting for rates to fall so they can refinance.

Higher Treasury yields can ripple through other borrowing markets as well. Auto loans, business loans, and some other forms of credit can become more expensive as lenders face higher market interest rates.

Credit card rates are somewhat different because they're more closely tied to short-term rates and the prime rate. So a jump in the 10-year Treasury does not automatically produce an equivalent jump in credit card APRs.

The good news: Savers can earn more

What's painful for borrowers can be beneficial for savers.

When Treasury yields rise, newly issued government securities offer investors higher returns. Consumers buying Treasury bills, notes, or bonds can therefore lock in yields that would have been difficult to find during the ultra-low-rate years following the financial crisis and pandemic.

Higher market interest rates can also help keep yields on CDs, money-market accounts, and high-yield savings accounts attractive as banks compete for deposits.

Some high-yield savings accounts are currently offering annual percentage yields as high as roughly 4.5%, although rates vary considerably by institution and can change quickly.

Consumers should remember that savings-account rates don't track the 10-year Treasury perfectly. They're generally more sensitive to the Fed's short-term interest-rate policy.

An environment of elevated market rates is generally better for savers than the near-zero-rate environment consumers experienced for much of the 2010s.

There's another catch for bond investors

Existing bondholders don't necessarily benefit when yields rise.

Because bond prices fall when yields rise, investors who already own longer-term bonds can see the market value of those investments decline.

Someone who holds an individual Treasury until maturity can generally expect to receive its face value at maturity, assuming the U.S. government makes its required payments. But an investor who needs to sell before maturity could receive less than they originally paid.

Bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds can also decline when yields rise, particularly funds holding longer-duration bonds.

What consumers should watch next

The big question is whether the surge in yields proves temporary or becomes a lasting shift toward higher long-term borrowing costs.

Inflation will be central to that answer. So will oil prices, federal borrowing, and expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

The latest Federal Reserve data illustrate an unusual divide in the interest-rate market. The effective federal funds rate was about 3.63%, while the 10-year Treasury recently stood near 4.7% and the 30-year around 5.25%.

That gap suggests investors want considerably more compensation for lending money over decades than for very short periods.

For consumers, the result is a mixed bag: People trying to borrow money especially to buy a home have another reason to hope yields come back down. People with cash to save or invest, however, may have more opportunities to earn meaningful interest without taking on substantial risk.

In short, rising Treasury yields aren't simply a Wall Street story. They're changing the price of money making it more expensive to borrow and potentially more rewarding to save.


Bond yields are rising: For consumers, that’s good and bad news

Photo By CNET

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Consumer News: Rising prices are eroding Americans’ loyalty to familiar brands
Tue, 18 Aug 2026 13:07:16 +0000

A survey shows most consumers think retailers are using inflation as an excuse

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs
August 18, 2026
  • 85% of Americans believe brands and retailers use inflation to justify larger-than-necessary price increases, according to an Omnisend survey.

  • More than half of respondents said they have stopped buying from brands they once preferred as prices climbed.

  • Nearly one-third reported using credit to pay for essentials such as groceries, rent, utilities and medical bills.


American consumers increasingly suspect companies are using inflation as cover to overchargeand many are responding by abandoning brands they once favored.

A survey commissioned by e-commerce marketing company Omnisend found that 85% of respondents believe brands and retailers often use inflation to raise prices more than necessary. About 67% said higher prices have changed how they view previously favored brands, while 56% reported that they have stopped buying from them altogether.

An additional 22% said they now trust those brands less, according to the findings.

Consumers did not reject all price increases. Respondents were most willing to pay more when the higher price reflected improved product quality, cited by 19%; better wages for workers, cited by 16%; or increased ingredient and material costs, cited by 15%.

Consumers expect an explanation

Marty Bauer, an e-commerce expert at Omnisend, said the findings indicate that customers expect companies to explain why prices are rising. Greater transparency, he said, has become part of the value shoppers expect from brands.

The survey also points to mounting pressure on household finances. Thirty percent of respondents said they had used credit during the previous three months to cover necessities, including groceries, gasoline, utilities, rent or medical expenses. Twenty percent had borrowed from friends or family, while 18% used buy-now-pay-later services and 17% tapped savings intended for another purpose.

Groceries emerged as the most acute source of concern. Thirty percent described grocery spending as the everyday expense that felt most out of control.

Most noticeable at supermarkets

Consumers also said supermarkets were where shrinkflationreducing a products size without lowering its pricewas most apparent. Sixty-five percent identified groceries as the category in which the practice was most obvious, 59% said they noticed it regularly and 29% considered it the most unfair form of a price increase.

Omnisend commissioned the survey, which research company Cint conducted in June 2026 among 1,075 U.S. consumers. Quotas for age, gender, income and residence were used to create what the company described as a nationally representative sample.

The reported margin of error was plus or minus three percentage points. Because the findings are based on self-reported responses to a company-sponsored survey, they measure consumers perceptions and experiences rather than whether individual companies have raised prices beyond their underlying costs.


Rising prices are eroding Americans’ loyalty to familiar brands

Photo By CNET

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