But affordability continues to be the wild card
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Experts expect U.S. mortgage rates to remain largely above 6% through 2026, with only modest declines compared with 2025.
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Economic uncertainty and Treasury yields not just Federal Reserve policy will heavily influence how far and fast rates fall.
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Regional and market differences mean some buyers could see affordability improve faster than others.
As 2026 gets underway, the outlook for U.S. mortgage rates points to a year of relative stabilization rather than dramatic decline, economists and industry analysts say. After the long climb to historically high levels in recent years, most forecasts suggest the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will cluster around the low 6% range, offering modest relief compared with recent peaks but not a return to pandemic-era lows.
Major forecasting agencies, including Fannie Mae, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and the Mortgage Bankers Association, project 2026 rates averaging roughly 6.0%6.3% only slightly below where they stood at the start of the year. Some scenarios envision rates dipping just below 6% by years end if inflation continues to cool and market conditions remain favorable.
Whats driving the rate outlook
Mortgage rates dont move in lockstep with Federal Reserve policy, and experts caution against assuming that Fed rate cuts alone will bring deep decreases. Instead, long-term Treasury yields which mortgage rates tend to follow and broader economic signals like inflation and job growth will be central to rate behavior in 2026.
If you find the right home and can afford the monthly payments, you should take the opportunity in front of you, Greg Schwartz, CEO of Tomo Mortgage, told Forbes. If rates decline, competition will increase. More buyers will reenter the market, sellers will regain leverage, and prices will follow.
Affordability still an issue
A key silver lining for homebuyers is that even modest rate declines could improve affordability especially when combined with slower home price growth and rising incomes, forecasts suggest. Some housing market analysts foresee that monthly mortgage payments could become measurably more manageable compared with previous years, even if rates stay above 6%.
Regional disparities are also expected. Markets with higher inventory and slower price growth might see sharper improvements in buyer access and affordability than high-demand urban areas.
Market reactions and volatility
Although the broader trend points toward a relatively stable 2026, short-term volatility remains possible. Recent movements in mortgage rates have shown the impact of political, economic, and global influences: markets briefly saw rates dip below 6% after major mortgage-backed securities purchases, but they have also climbed in response to geopolitical and financial developments.
For prospective homebuyers and those considering refinancing this year, the message from experts is one of measured optimism. Rates are likely to remain elevated by historical standards meaning borrowing costs wont fall back to ultra-low levels but are also unlikely to spike sharply higher absent unexpected economic stress.
As a result, buyers may find more manageable mortgage costs in 2026 compared with the last two years, especially if they lock in rates and dont wait for a rate trough that may never arrive.
Posted: 2026-01-21 12:54:18















