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The move defies expectations during a geopolitical crisis

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• Gold is falling despite geopolitical turmoil as investors flock to the U.S. dollar instead.

• Higher interest rates and inflation expectations are undercutting golds appeal.

• Analysts say macroeconomic forces are overwhelming golds traditional safe-haven role.

Theres war in the Middle East. Oil prices are surging. Gold prices should also be surging, but theyre not. Theyre going down.

Gold, long regarded as a reliable refuge during times of geopolitical upheaval, is defying expectations. Even as tensions escalate in the Middle East, prices for the precious metal have moved sharply lower, leaving some investors puzzled.

Market analysts say the explanation lies not in a breakdown of golds traditional role, but in the unusual economic dynamics surrounding the current crisis.

Dollar strength is one reason gold is going lower

Instead of flowing into gold, capital is pouring into the U.S. dollar, which has surged as global investors seek liquidity and safety. Because gold is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes the metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies, dampening demand.

This shift points to a key reality: gold is not the only safe haven. In periods of financial stress, especially those tied to energy markets and global trade, cash and particularly dollar-denominated assets can take precedence.

Another major factor weighing on gold is the outlook for interest rates.

The conflict has driven oil prices higher, raising concerns about renewed inflation. In turn, investors increasingly believe central banks especially the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer than previously expected.

Higher rates are negative for gold

That dynamic is typically negative for gold. Unlike bonds or savings instruments, gold does not generate income. When yields on safer assets rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases.

While gold is often viewed as a hedge against inflation, the current environment is more complex, analysts say.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, says weve seen this pattern before.

For instance, gold jumped 15% after the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, but then declined by 15-18% as the Federal Reserve raised rates, he told Morningstar. The same happened during the Gulf War and Iraq War; prices rose 17% and 19%, respectively, at the start but decreased as tensions eased.

Higher energy prices are feeding inflation fears, but they are also reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy. In the short term, that combination tends to pressure gold rather than support it.

In other words, inflation is working against gold indirectly by keeping interest rates high.

Profit-taking and liquidity pressures add to the decline

Golds recent drop also reflects investor behavior following a strong run-up earlier this year. Prices had climbed significantly before the latest escalation, prompting some traders to lock in gains.

At the same time, periods of market volatility often trigger broader selling. Investors may liquidate gold positions simply because they are profitable and easy to sell, using the proceeds to cover losses elsewhere or raise cash.

The current downturn reinforces a broader shift in how markets are reacting to geopolitical events. While gold still responds to uncertainty, its price is increasingly influenced by interest rates, currency movements, and central bank policy. For now, those forces are pointing downward.

President Trump is deploying ICE agents to help

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• TSA staffing levels remain uneven across major U.S. airports, contributing to longer and less predictable security wait times.

• Peak travel periods especially mornings, holidays, and spring/summer travel surges are seeing the most strain.

• Travelers can reduce delays by planning ahead, using expedited screening programs, and timing their airport arrival strategically.

The ongoing partial government shutdown is creating long lines at airport security checkpoints. During a shutdown, TSA officers are considered essential, meaning they must continue working even when funding lapses. However, they do not receive paychecks until funding is restored.

That is a major reason for the long, slow-moving lines. Many TSA employees have now missed multiple paychecks. That financial strain may be forcing some to seek other work or leave entirely. Over the weekend, President Trump directed ICE agents, who are being paid, to assist TSA agents at airports around the country.

But the government shutdown is not the only reason for the logjam. Another complicating factor is the rebound in passenger volumes to pre-pandemic levels. TSA staffing has struggled to keep pace in certain regions, creating bottlenecks that can add significant time and stress to the airport experience.

According to industry analysts and airport officials, the issue isnt a nationwide shortage so much as an uneven distribution of personnel. Major hubs such as Atlanta, Denver, Orlando, and Las Vegas have reported periodic staffing gaps during peak hours, while smaller airports often face tighter staffing margins overall.

While TSA has stepped up its hiring efforts, it can be hard to attract employees if they arent told when theyll start getting paid.

Why lines are getting longer

Several factors are contributing to extended wait times:

• Surging passenger traffic: Leisure travel remains strong, and business travel continues to rebound.

• Peak-hour congestion: Flights tend to cluster in early morning and late afternoon windows.

• Training and turnover: New hires require time to become fully efficient, and turnover remains a challenge in some locations.

• Increased screening complexity: Electronics, carry-on volume, and security protocols can slow throughput.

Although TSA has emphasized that it meets national staffing targets, localized shortages can still cause delays especially when unexpected absences or equipment issues arise.

What travelers can do to avoid delays

While travelers cant control staffing levels, they can take steps to minimize the impact of long lines:

1. Arrive earlier.
Standard advice arriving two hours before domestic flights and three hours before international still applies. During peak seasons or at busy airports, adding an extra 3060 minutes can provide a buffer.

2. Enroll in TSA PreCheck or CLEAR.
Expedited screening programs can dramatically reduce wait times. TSA PreCheck allows travelers to keep shoes and laptops in place, while CLEAR uses biometric verification to skip ID lines entirely at participating airports.

3. Check wait times beforeleaving for the airport.
Many airports and airlines now provide real-time or estimated security wait times through apps and websites. These tools can help you adjust your arrival time.

4. Travel at off-peak times when possible.
Midday and late evening flights often have shorter lines than early morning departures. Flexibility in scheduling can make a noticeable difference.

5. Pack smart.
Avoid packing prohibited items and keep liquids and electronics easily accessible. A well-organized carry-on can speed up your time at the checkpoint.

6. Use alternative checkpoints.
Larger airports may have multiple security checkpoints, some of which are less crowded. Airport staff or apps can help direct you to shorter lines.

Looking Ahead

TSA continues to hire and deploy additional officers, particularly ahead of busy travel seasons. However, experts say travelers should expect variability in wait times to persist, especially at high-volume airports and even after the partial shutdown ends.

The cost of producing, transporting, and storing food is closely tied to energy

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• Rising energy costs are pushing up prices across the food supply chain, from farming to grocery shelves.

• Energy-intensive foods like meat, dairy, and processed goods are seeing the sharpest increases.

• Consumers may continue to feel the impact through higher grocery bills and reduced product availability.

The war against Iran has essentially slowed Mideast oil exports to a crawl, sending gas prices in the U.S. soaring. That has not only made filling your tank more expensive, its beginning to make a trip to the supermarket more expensive.

Analysts say the cost of producing, transporting, and storing food is closely tied to energy, meaning higher fuel and electricity prices are now translating into more expensive meals for households. If high energy prices persist, consumers may feel more pain at the checkout counter in the weeks to come.

At the farm level, energy is a critical input. Diesel powers tractors and harvesting equipment, while natural gas is a key ingredient in fertilizer production. As those costs climb, farmers face higher operating expenses, which are often passed along the supply chain.

Patrick DeHaan, head of Petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, notes that diesel prices are rising faster than gasoline, putting pressure on companies that produce and transport food products. DeHaan reports the four-week increase in diesel prices is $1.44 a gallon, the largest ever.

Prices arent at record highsbut the speed of this surge is, DeHaan wrote in a post on X.

Meat and dairy use a lot of energy

The effects are especially pronounced in energy-intensive food categories. Meat and dairy products require significant resources, including feed production, refrigeration, and transportation. Livestock operations also rely heavily on climate-controlled environments, further increasing electricity demand. As a result, these items are among the first to see price hikes.

Processed foods are also vulnerable. Manufacturing plants consume large amounts of energy for cooking, packaging, and preservation. Additionally, the cost of packaging materials many of which are petroleum-based has risen alongside energy prices. This combination is pushing up the price of everything from frozen dinners to snack foods.

Transportation adds another layer of pressure. Food often travels long distances before reaching consumers, and higher fuel costs make shipping more expensive. This is particularly impactful for fresh produce, which must be moved quickly and kept refrigerated throughout transit.

Higher costs for grocery stores

Retailers, meanwhile, are facing their own energy challenges. Grocery stores are among the most energy-intensive retail spaces due to refrigeration, lighting, and climate control. As utility bills rise, some of those costs are being reflected in shelf prices.

For consumers, the result is a steady increase in grocery bills. While some staples like grains may be less immediately affected, experts warn that prolonged high energy costs could eventually push up prices across nearly all categories.

There may also be indirect effects. Higher food prices can shift consumer behavior, leading shoppers to opt for cheaper alternatives or reduce discretionary purchases. In turn, this can reshape demand patterns and influence what products remain widely available.

Consumers have a lot riding on the future of energy prices. If they remain elevated, food inflation could persist, adding pressure to household budgets already strained by broader economic challenges. For now, the connection between energy and food costs is becoming increasingly clear and difficult for consumers to ignore.

The move defies expectations during a geopolitical crisis

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• Gold is falling despite geopolitical turmoil as investors flock to the U.S. dollar instead

• Higher interest rates and inflation expectations are undercutting golds appeal

• Analysts say macroeconomic forces are overwhelming golds traditional safe-haven role

Theres war in the Middle East. Oil prices are surging. Gold prices should also be surging, but theyre not. Theyre going down.

Gold, long regarded as a reliable refuge during times of geopolitical upheaval, is defying expectations. Even as tensions escalate in the Middle East, prices for the precious metal have moved sharply lower, leaving some investors puzzled.

Market analysts say the explanation lies not in a breakdown of golds traditional role, but in the unusual economic dynamics surrounding the current crisis.

Dollar strength is one reason gold is going lower

Instead of flowing into gold, capital is pouring into the U.S. dollar, which has surged as global investors seek liquidity and safety. Because gold is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes the metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies, dampening demand.

This shift points to a key reality: gold is not the only safe haven. In periods of financial stress, especially those tied to energy markets and global trade, cashand particularly dollar-denominated assetscan take precedence.

Another major factor weighing on gold is the outlook for interest rates.

The conflict has driven oil prices higher, raising concerns about renewed inflation. In turn, investors increasingly believe central banksespecially the Federal Reservewill keep interest rates elevated for longer than previously expected.

Higher rates are negative for gold

That dynamic is typically negative for gold. Unlike bonds or savings instruments, gold does not generate income. When yields on safer assets rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases.

While gold is often viewed as a hedge against inflation, the current environment is more complex, analysts say.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, says weve seen this pattern before.

For instance, gold jumped 15% after the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, but then declined by 15-18% as the Federal Reserve raised rates, he told Morningstar. The same happened during the Gulf War and Iraq War; prices rose 17% and 19%, respectively, at the start but decreased as tensions eased.

Higher energy prices are feeding inflation fears, but they are also reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy. In the short term, that combination tends to pressure gold rather than support it.

In other words, inflation is working against gold indirectly by keeping interest rates high.

Profit-taking and liquidity pressures add to the decline

Golds recent drop also reflects investor behavior following a strong run-up earlier this year. Prices had climbed significantly before the latest escalation, prompting some traders to lock in gains.

At the same time, periods of market volatility often trigger broader selling. Investors may liquidate gold positions simply because they are profitable and easy to sell, using the proceeds to cover losses elsewhere or raise cash.

The current downturn reinforces a broader shift in how markets are reacting to geopolitical events. While gold still responds to uncertainty, its price is increasingly influenced by interest rates, currency movements, and central bank policy. For now, those forces are pointing downward.