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Because of the conflict in the Middle East, global food prices surged 2.4% in March

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• Global food prices rose 2.4% in March, the second straight monthly increase, driven largely by higher energy and fertilizer costs tied to the Iran war.

• Fertilizer shortages and surging fuel prices are raising farm costs and threatening crop yields, creating lagged inflation risks later in 2026.

• U.S. food inflation had been expected to ease this year, but rising oil prices and supply disruptions are now likely to push grocery prices higher again.

The most visible effects of the war against Iran showed up quickly in the form of surging gasoline prices. But the second act may appear at the supermarket checkout counter, and the latest data suggest it could be worse.

Data released by the United Nations show the FAO Food Price Index climbed 2.4% in March, marking a second consecutive increase and reversing the easing trend seen through much of 2025. The gains were broad-based, with sugar and vegetable oil prices jumping sharply and wheat also rising.

The immediate catalyst is the escalating conflict involving Iran, which has disrupted critical shipping lanes and driven up oil prices, two factors that feed directly into food production and distribution costs.

Energy shock feeds directly into grocery bills

Economists say the most immediate transmission channel to U.S. consumers is energy. Oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel amid supply disruptions, lifting gasoline and diesel costs nationwide.

That matters because food is highly energy-intensive: fuel powers farm machinery, irrigation systems, processing facilities, and transportation networks.

Higher transportation costs are often the first to show up in grocery prices, followed by broader increases as producers pass along rising input costs.

Fertilizer shortages pose longer-term risk

Beyond energy, the conflict is also constraining supplies of fertilizer, arguably the more significant medium-term risk.

Key fertilizer components move through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint now affected by the conflict. Disruptions have already driven sharp increases in input costs, andin some cases, reduced availability.

Farmers facing higher costs are expected to cut back on fertilizer use or plant fewer acres, decisions that could reduce yields later this year and into 2027.

That creates what analysts describe as a lagged inflation effect, where todays input shocks translate into tighter food supplies months later.

From easing to re-acceleration

Before the conflict escalated, the outlook for U.S. food inflation was relatively benign. The USDA had projected food-at-home prices would rise about 3.1% in 2026, only modestly above historical averages.

Recent developments, however, are forcing economists to reassess.

Early indicators already show pressure building: U.S. grocery prices were up about 3% year-over-year as of February, even before the full impact of the conflict.

Now, some analysts warn that global food prices could rise 12% to 18% if disruptions persist, adding significantly to household grocery bills.

Consumer impact and policy implications

Rising food costs tend to hit lower-income households hardest, as groceries make up a larger share of their spending.

Persistent food inflation could also complicate monetary policy. Federal Reserve officials had been watching for signs of easing price pressures, but renewed increases in food and energy could delay interest rate cuts and keep borrowing costs elevated.

Business leaders are already flagging the risk. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently warned that inflation could become a skunk at the party if geopolitical tensions continue to push up commodity prices.

The trajectory of food inflation in the U.S. now hinges heavily on geopolitics.

If energy markets stabilize and fertilizer flows resume, price pressures could moderate later in the year. But prolonged disruption particularly during the critical planting season raises the risk of sustained or even accelerating food inflation into 2027.

Researchers link over-consumption to heart disease

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• Eating more than nine servings of ultra-processed foods daily was linked to a 67% higher risk of major heart events.

• Each additional daily serving increased cardiovascular risk by more than 5%.

• Researchers found the association persisted even after accounting for other health and lifestyle factors.

Health experts say there are a lot of reasons to limit consumption of ultra-processed food. For one, they contain very little nutritional value.

A new large-scale U.S. study may have added another reason. It suggests there is growing evidence that diets heavy in ultra-processed foods may significantly increase the risk of heart disease.

The research, led by scientists at UTHealth Houston and presented at the American College of Cardiologys Annual Scientific Session, analyzed dietary and health data from more than 6,800 adults over roughly a decade. Participants were initially free of cardiovascular disease and part of the long-running Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

The findings were striking: individuals who consumed more than nine servings of ultra-processed foods per day had a 67% higher risk of experiencing major cardiovascular events such as heart attacks, strokes, or death from heart disease compared with those who consumed about one serving daily.

Risk appeared to rise steadily with each additional serving. Researchers found that every extra daily serving of ultra-processed food increased the likelihood of a serious heart event by more than 5%, underscoring a dose-response relationship.

What counts as ultra-processed?

Ultra-processed foods are industrially manufactured products that often contain additives, preservatives, added sugars, unhealthy fats, and high levels of sodium. Common examples include packaged snacks, sugary drinks, processed meats, and ready-to-eat meals.

While these foods are widely consumed for convenience and affordability, researchers say their composition and possibly the processing itself may contribute to harmful biological effects, including inflammation, weight gain, and metabolic disruptions that elevate cardiovascular risk.

The study found that the link between ultra-processed food intake and heart disease remained strong even after adjusting for factors such as calorie intake, overall diet quality, obesity, diabetes, and high blood pressure.

This suggests that the processing of food itself may play an independent role in cardiovascular risk, the researchers noted.

The analysis also revealed disparities among demographic groups. The increase in risk was more pronounced among Black participants, a finding researchers say may reflect differences in access to healthy foods and the higher availability of ultra-processed options in some communities.

Growing body of evidence

The new findings align with a broader body of research linking ultra-processed foods to chronic health conditions, including obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease.

Health experts increasingly emphasize that not just what people eat, but how food is processed, may be critical to long-term health outcomes.

Researchers say the results reinforce the importance of limiting ultra-processed foods and focusing on minimally processed options such as fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and lean proteins.

When booking a flight, dont just consider the fare

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• Several major U.S. airlines have raised checked baggage fees in recent months, citing higher operating costs driven by rising jet fuel prices.

• The increases affect both domestic and international routes, with some fees climbing by $5 to $15 per bag.

• Industry analysts say the move reflects broader cost pressures across aviation, though consumer advocates warn of growing frustration among travelers.

U.S. airlines are once again increasing checked baggage fees, pointing to surging jet fuel prices as a key factor behind the latest round of price hikes. The changes, which have rolled out across several major carriers, are expected to affect millions of travelers heading into the busy summer and fall travel seasons.

United Airlines said the cost of the first checked bag is going up to $45 if passengers prepay. The fee is $50 if they pay within 24 hours oftheir flight.

"United Chase credit card holders, MileagePlus Premier members, active military members,and customers traveling in premium cabins can still check a bag for free," the airline said in a statement.

Fuel expenses have risen sharply

Airline executives say the increases are necessary to offset escalating fuel expenses, which remain one of the industrys largest and most volatile costs. Jet fuel prices have risen significantly over the past year due to a combination of geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and fluctuating global oil markets.

The move underscores a broader trend in the airline industry toward unbundling services charging separately for amenities that were once included in ticket prices. Checked baggage fees alone generate billions of dollars annually for U.S. carriers, making them a critical revenue stream.

However, the increases are drawing criticism from consumer advocates, who argue that travelers are already facing higher ticket prices and additional fees across the board. Some warn that continued hikes could erode customer loyalty, particularly as budget-conscious passengers look for ways to cut travel expenses.

Why airlines charge for checked bags

So, why dont airlines just raise the ticket price to include the cost of checking bags? Chalk it up to competition.

Studies have shown that consumers are extremely price-sensitive when booking a flight. A fare difference as small as $2 will cause them to choose a different carrier.

That means it is very important to know what an airline charges for checked bags when booking a flight. A cheap fare might not be so cheap if youre checking a couple of bags. Consider strategies such as packing lighter or using airline-branded credit cards that may waive baggage fees.

If you arent going to be ready, file for an extension

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• The IRS is urging taxpayers to file electronically and choose direct deposit to speed refunds.

• April 15 remains the deadline for most filers, with extensions available, but not extensions to pay.

• Free filing options are available for eligible taxpayers through IRS Free File and Direct File programs.

With the April 15 tax filing deadline fast approaching, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is reminding millions of Americans to finalize and submit their returns while taking advantage of tools designed to make the process faster, safer, and more accurate.

The agency is encouraging taxpayers who have not yet filed to do so as soon as possible, noting that electronic filing combined with direct deposit remains the quickest way to receive a refund. Most refunds are issued within 21 days when returns are filed electronically without errors.

Extensions available but taxes still due

For those who need more time, the IRS says taxpayers can request an automatic six-month extension, pushing the filing deadline to October. However, officials stress that an extension to file is not an extension to pay.

Taxpayers are still required to estimate and pay any owed taxes by April 15 to avoid potential penalties and interest. Payments can be made online through IRS Direct Pay, debit or credit card, or other electronic options.

Free filing options expand access

The IRS continues to promote free filing programs for eligible individuals. IRS Free File allows taxpayers below certain income thresholds to use guided tax software at no cost, while Direct File available in select states offers a simplified way to file directly with the IRS.

These tools are designed to help taxpayers file accurately and avoid common errors that can delay processing, the agency said.

Common errors can delay refunds

The IRS is also warning filers to double-check their returns for frequent mistakes, including incorrect Social Security numbers, mismatched income figures, and missing signatures. Errors can slow down processing and delay refunds.

Taxpayers are also advised to gather all necessary documents, such as W-2s, 1099 forms, and records of credits or deductions, before filing.

Eligible taxpayers may still benefit from valuable tax credits, including the Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit, which can significantly boost refunds. The IRS encourages filers to review eligibility carefully, as many taxpayers miss out on credits each year.

Watch for

As the deadline nears, the IRS is cautioning taxpayers to remain vigilant against and fraudulent communications. The agency emphasizes that it does not initiate contact via email, text, or social media to request personal or financial information.

With just days remaining before April 15, IRS officials say filing sooner rather than later can help taxpayers avoid last-minute stress, processing delays, and potential penalties.

For those still preparing their returns, the message is straightforward: file electronically, pay what you owe on time, and use trusted IRS resources to ensure a smooth filing season.