Consumer News: Postal rates are going up again

AAA reports the average price of regular gas rose $0.05 in 24 hours

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• U.S. gasoline prices are climbing sharply after President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran "over," raising fears of renewed disruptions to global oil supplies.

• Crude oil prices jumped about 5% after Trump's comments, prompting analysts to warn that the recent decline in gas prices could quickly reverse if fighting intensifies.

• GasBuddy and AAA analysts say motorists should expect higher prices at the pump in the coming days as retailers pass along higher wholesale fuel costs.

U.S. motorists are facing another jump in gasoline prices after President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran is over, triggering an immediate rally in global oil markets and raising concerns that the conflict could once again disrupt energy supplies from the Middle East.

Oil prices climbed roughly 6% after Trump's announcement that the ceasefire had ended and that negotiations with Iran were no longer worthwhile. The sharp move reflected renewed fears that fighting could threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil transit routes.

The surge in crude prices is expected to filter quickly into retail gasoline prices across the United States.

According to AAA, the national average price of regular gas has risen $0.05/gallon since Wednesday, to $3.84 a gallon. Thats a penny a gallon higher than one week ago.

Back to $4 a gallon?

Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis, said the recent relief drivers have been seeing at the pump could be short-lived. He warned that the national average could move back toward $4 a gallon if oil prices remain elevated, although the speed and magnitude of the increase will depend on whether the conflict escalates further and how long higher crude prices persist.

AAA has also warned that gasoline prices remain closely tied to movements in crude oil, which accounts for more than half the cost of producing gasoline. The organization noted that while national pump prices had fallen below $4 per gallon in recent weeks, geopolitical events can rapidly reverse that trend.

A dramatic reversal

The renewed fighting marks a dramatic reversal from the optimism that followed the ceasefire agreement reached only weeks ago. At the time, easing tensions allowed oil prices to retreat and gasoline prices to steadily decline as markets anticipated fewer disruptions to global energy supplies.

Instead, investors are once again focusing on the risk that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could be interrupted. Roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply moves through the narrow waterway, making it one of the most strategically important shipping lanes in the global energy market.

Even though the price at the pump is rising, analysts caution that there may be more pain ahead. They note that wholesale gasoline markets have already reacted more sharply than retail stations, meaning consumers could see additional increases over the next several days.

Realtor.com lowers its 2026 forecast for home price appreciation, citing slower growth

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• Realtor.com has lowered its 2026 home price growth forecast to 1.2%, down from 2.2%, saying prices are now expected to rise more slowly than inflation.

• Existing home sales are still projected to increase this year, but the forecast has been trimmed slightly to 4.10 million homes as elevated mortgage rates continue to restrain buyers.

• The housing market is expected to become more buyer-friendly in the second half of the year, with slower price growth, improving affordability and declining rents.

A major housing platform has issued its mid-year report on the housing market, and even though affordability remains a serious issue, the report is favorable for buyers.

Realtor.com expects the housing market to remain sluggish through much of 2026, and that may gradually favor buyers as home price growth slows, affordability improves, and sellers become more realistic about pricing.

The online real estate marketplace this week revised its forecast for existing-home price appreciation to 1.2% this year, nearly half the 2.2% increase it projected in December. Because inflation is expected to outpace home price growth, Realtor.com says home values are effectively declining in real terms, giving buyers some long-awaited relief.

Inching forward

"The housing market is inching forward as sellers reset expectations, price growth cools, and buyers gain more negotiating power," Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, said in the report. She added that momentum should build during the second half of the year as more buyers and sellers find common ground.

Despite the softer pricing outlook, Realtor.com left its mortgage rate forecast unchanged. The company expects the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to remain around 6.3% throughout 2026, saying a resilient economy and persistent inflation pressures have offset hopes for significantly lower borrowing costs.

The firm also modestly reduced its forecast for existing-home sales to 4.10 million, down from the 4.13 million projected at the end of 2025. Even so, that would represent a 1% increase over 2025, with sales activity expected to strengthen during the second half of the year after a slow start.

Encouraging sign

One encouraging sign for buyers is affordability. Realtor.com now expects the typical monthly mortgage payment to decline 1.9% from last year, reflecting slower home price growth and steady mortgage rates. Combined with rising household incomes, that should reduce the share of income needed for housing payments.

Inventory is also expected to continue growing, though at a slower pace than previously forecast. Realtor.com now projects the number of homes for sale will increase 3.6% this year, providing buyers with more choices while easing some of the intense competition that characterized the market in recent years.

The outlook also calls for rents to decline another 1.2% in 2026, continuing a trend that has made renting a more attractive option for many households, although the gap between renting and buying has narrowed as homeownership costs have eased somewhat.

While affordability remains a challenge, Realtor.com said first-time buyers are beginning to play a larger role in the market. They accounted for 35% of home purchases in May, up from 30% a year earlier, a sign that improving conditions are encouraging more households to make the leap into homeownership.

Users also report changes in what they buy

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• A growing number of people taking GLP-1 weight-loss medications are spending significantly less on groceries, according to new research from Worldpanel by Numerator.

• The study estimates households with a GLP-1 user spend about $570 less on groceries each year, contributing to an estimated $1.1 billion reduction in annual grocery spending across Britain.

• The findings suggest the drugs are beginning to reshape consumer buying habits, posing new challengesand opportunitiesfor food manufacturers and retailers.

People use GLP-1 drugs such as Wegovy and Mounjaro to lose weight. But in many cases, as their waistline shrinks, their bank account grows.

According to a study by Worldpanel by Numerator, households that include someone taking a GLP-1 medication spend an average of about $570 less on groceries each year than households without a user. The British study estimates that across the United Kingdom, this translates into around $1.1 billion less annual grocery spending.

The research found that nearly 1.9 million adults in Britain are now using GLP-1 medications, almost three times as many as two years ago. About 6.3% of British households now include at least one user, underscoring how quickly the drugs have entered the mainstream.

The medications, originally developed to treat Type 2 diabetes, work by mimicking the GLP-1 hormone, helping people feel full longer and reducing appetite. They have become increasingly popular for weight management because many users experience significant weight loss while taking them.

Changes in what people buy

Worldpanel by Numerator found the medications are changing what consumers buy as well as how much they spend. More than three-quarters of users reported eating less chocolate and fewer potato chips, while over half said they experienced fewer food cravings overall. Many also said they were eating more mindfully and choosing healthier foods.

The shift is beginning to ripple through the grocery industry.

Manufacturers and retailers are seeing weaker demand for traditional snack foods and confectionery, while interest is growing in products that are higher in protein and fiber or specifically marketed to GLP-1 users. Some supermarket chains have already introduced meal plans and products designed for consumers taking the medications.

The study also found that cost remains a significant barrier. About 40% of people who stopped taking GLP-1 medications said expense was the primary reason they discontinued treatment.

The findings are consistent with other recent research showing that GLP-1 medications are changing consumer spending habits. A peer-reviewed study published in the Journal of Marketing Research found that grocery spending falls by about 5.3% within six months after a household member begins taking a GLP-1 drug, with restaurant spending also declining.

Realtor.com lowers its 2026 forecast for home price appreciation, citing slower growth

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• Realtor.com has lowered its 2026 home price growth forecast to 1.2%, down from 2.2%, saying prices are now expected to rise more slowly than inflation.

• Existing home sales are still projected to increase this year, but the forecast has been trimmed slightly to 4.10 million homes as elevated mortgage rates continue to restrain buyers.

• The housing market is expected to become more buyer-friendly in the second half of the year, with slower price growth, improving affordability and declining rents.

A major housing platform has issued its mid-year report on the housing market, and even though affordability remains a serious issue, the report is favorable for buyers.

Realtor.com expects the housing market to remain sluggish through much of 2026, and that may gradually favor of buyers as home price growth slows, affordability improves and sellers become more realistic about pricing.

The online real estate marketplace this week revised its forecast for existing-home price appreciation to 1.2% this year, nearly half the 2.2% increase it projected in December. Because inflation is expected to outpace home price growth, Realtor.com says home values are effectively declining in real terms, giving buyers some long-awaited relief.

Inching forward

"The housing market is inching forward as sellers reset expectations, price growth cools, and buyers gain more negotiating power," Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, said in the report. She added that momentum should build during the second half of the year as more buyers and sellers find common ground.

Despite the softer pricing outlook, Realtor.com left its mortgage rate forecast unchanged. The company expects the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to remain around 6.3% throughout 2026, saying a resilient economy and persistent inflation pressures have offset hopes for significantly lower borrowing costs.

The firm also modestly reduced its forecast for existing-home sales to 4.10 million, down from the 4.13 million projected at the end of 2025. Even so, that would represent a 1% increase over 2025, with sales activity expected to strengthen during the second half of the year after a slow start.

Encouraging sign

One encouraging sign for buyers is affordability. Realtor.com now expects the typical monthly mortgage payment to decline 1.9% from last year, reflecting slower home price growth and steady mortgage rates. Combined with rising household incomes, that should reduce the share of income needed for housing payments.

Inventory is also expected to continue growing, though at a slower pace than previously forecast. Realtor.com now projects the number of homes for sale will increase 3.6% this year, providing buyers with more choices while easing some of the intense competition that characterized the market in recent years.

The outlook also calls for rents to decline another 1.2% in 2026, continuing a trend that has made renting a more attractive option for many households, although the gap between renting and buying has narrowed as homeownership costs have eased somewhat.

While affordability remains a challenge, Realtor.com said first-time buyers are beginning to play a larger role in the market. They accounted for 35% of home purchases in May, up from 30% a year earlier, a sign that improving conditions are encouraging more households to make the leap into homeownership.