The week is starting with a hopeful sign
Gasoline prices enter the new week with conflicting signals as geopolitical tensions and energy markets pull in opposite directions.
The national average price of regular gasoline stands at $3.87 a gallon, up seven cents from a week ago and the same as the previous day, according to AAA.
Analysts say developments in the Middle East particularly the standoff involving Iran and the security of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to determine whether prices at the pump continue rising or begin to ease.
Gasoline prices are beginning the week at a crossroads, leaving motorists wondering whether the recent run-up at the pump has peaked or if another round of increases is ahead. Events in the Middle East will likely determine their direction.
AAA reports the national average price of regular gasoline is $3.87 a gallon, seven cents higher than a week ago and the same as the previous day, suggesting that the rapid climb in prices may be losing momentum.
Until last week, drivers had been enjoying steadily declining fuel prices as crude oil retreated from its spring highs. That trend abruptly reversed after President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran was "over," raising concerns about renewed instability in one of the world's most important oil-producing regions. Oil prices quickly surged before moderating, but retail gasoline prices continued moving higher.
Oil and gas prices dont move in tandem
The disconnect between oil prices and gasoline prices often frustrates consumers, who expect pump prices to fall as quickly as crude oil. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, says the relationship is more complicated.
"Oil is still the biggest input into gasoline prices, it just isn't the only one," De Haan posted on X. "If flour doubles, bread gets more expensive. But if flour gets cheaper while baking and transportation costs rise, bread won't fall by the same amount. Gasoline works the same way."
In addition to crude oil costs, gasoline prices are influenced by refining margins, transportation expenses, regional fuel inventories, and seasonal demand. Retail stations also adjust prices more slowly than wholesale markets, meaning motorists often see increases immediately while declines take longer to appear.
Eyes on the Middle East
AAA said uncertainty surrounding the Middle East remains the biggest wildcard. Although crude oil has settled back into the $70-per-barrel range after its initial spike, any escalation that threatens oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could send both oil and gasoline prices higher again.
In the days ahead, motorists face a mixed outlook. If geopolitical tensions ease and oil continues to stabilize, gasoline prices could begin drifting lower later this month. But another flare-up in the region could quickly reverse that trend, making this week's developments in the Middle East especially important for drivers planning summer travel.
Posted: 2026-07-13 13:13:19
















