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How to still win Christmas on a budget this year

• New tariffs on imported toys are pushing prices up, thinning inventory, and making big-name brands harder to find

• Shoppers will see fewer familiar brands, sneaky shrinkflation in the box, and higher prices on in-demand hot toys

• Parents can push back by shopping early, checking whats actually in the box, choosing non-tariff or secondhand options, and stacking every discount on tariff-heavy toys

Parents heading into the toy aisle this year may that notice something is off, even if they cant quite put a finger on it. The number of toys on the shelf looks a little thinner and brand-name favorites are harder to find.

And the part that hurts the most is that under $20 toy somehow rings up closer to $30.

A new wave of tariffs on imported goods, especially toys and other kid gifts, is already working its way into prices across the country.

In Edmonds, Washington, the owner of longtime local shop Teris Toybox told KOMO News that her costs are up 30% to 50% this year. Everything has just skyrocketed, she said, adding that shes had to order less and raise price tags to stay afloat.

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), U.S. holiday spending is on track to top $1 trillion for the first time this year, with average shoppers planning to shell out around $890 each. But a growing share of that money is going to higher prices and not more toys for the kids and tariffs is one of the main factors at play.

What this looks like in the toy aisle

For the average shopper not paying attention to the complexities of the current tariff situation, heres what you should expect this year:

• Thinner inventory. Retailers in multiple states say theyve cut back orders or delayed re-stocking certain toy lines because theyre more expensive. This includes Barbie, Tonka, Care Bears, Hot Wheels, and Hasbro hot toys.
• Fewer familiar brands. When tariffs make a favorite brand more expensive, some stores are forced to swap in cheaper, lesser-known brands from other countries. So instead of Lego sets from Denmark, or German Playmobil playsets, you might find knock-offs from countries not as affected by tariffs.
• Quiet shrinkflation. Instead of hiking the sticker price on a big play set, some manufacturers will just cut whats inside the box. Expect things like fewer cars in a race set, fewer outfits in a fashion doll pack, or fewer accessories in a kitchen or workbench toy. All done while keeping the price the same.
• Higher ceiling on hot toys. For in-demand hot toys (and brands) that people will buy regardless of price, retailers have more room to raise prices without losing sales.

Meanwhile, overall holiday spending is still expected to be strong. Forecasters expects retail sales in November and December to grow about 3.7% to 4.2% over last year.

So, the takeaway is that parents still want to buy their kids the toys on their wish list, even if it means getting less toy for the money.

What parents can do right now

Unfortunately, you cant personally rewrite tariff policy before Christmas hits. But you can definitely shop more strategically in an effort to get around the tariffs.

Here are a few smart ways to push back:

1. Shop early for must-have imports

If your kid wants a specific branded doll, building set, or electronic toy thats likely made in China, dont wait until the last minute.

Between tariffs and thinner inventory, theres a decent chance it wont get cheaper as we get closer to Christmas morning. It might actually sell out entirely and leave you stuck buying it on eBay for 4x the retail price.

Pro tip: When youre shopping online, on the product page, scroll to the details or specs section to see where they toy is made. If its from China and the price feels high, open a new tab and search the same type of toy with made in USA added to your search. Youll often find a similar, tariff-safe option, that costs less. Your kid will never notice the brand swap.

2. Compare whats in the box, not just the price

When youre comparing similar toys across stores (or versions from last year vs. this year), be sure to check the following:

• How many pieces are included.
• Whether accessories (extra tracks, figures, etc.) are the same.
• If the value pack really has more, or just a bigger box with more air in it.

Shrinkflation is a lot easier to hide in toy packaging than on a grocery shelf so make sure you know what youre getting.

3. Look for non-tariff alternatives where it doesnt matter to your kid

There are some toy categories where brand isnt super important.

This includes things like puzzles, basic blocks, art supplies, tickets to local attractions, and craft kits.

When buying these, consider the following:

• Buy toys made in the U.S. and avoid tariffs altogether.
• Shop local toy shops that feature smaller domestic toy makers.
• Look for experience-based gifts (museum passes, classes, tickets) that dont depend on imports at all.

I think its a very smart move to save your brand loyalty for the one or two big gifts your child will really notice.

Pro tip: If your kid has a non-negotiable big gift this year, lock that in first at the best price you can find. Then you can build the rest of your list around more tariff-safe stuff (U.S./EU-made toys, puzzles, craft kits, experiences). By doing it this way, youre only paying the tariff tax on one or two things instead of everything under the tree.

4. Use secondhand for big-ticket items

Things like play kitchens, wagons, train tables, and ride-on toys often survive multiple families.

Check local buy/sell Facebook groups, consignment shops, and refurbished marketplaces before you pay full, tariff-inflated prices on this stuff.

5. Stack every discount you can on tariff-heavy toys

If you are buying something that you know is tariff-exposed do the following:

• Try to combine store coupons with loyalty rewards or cash-back offers.
• Always compare multiple retailers, including buy-online-pick-up-in-store options.
• Dont forget to factor in shipping costs as the best base price isnt always the best total price.

Bottom line: higher prices are already baked into mosttoys this holiday, even if the box looks exactly the same as last year. This means its time to change your strategy and save some money in the process.