Most forecasts see rates leveling off during much of the year
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Freddie Macs latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) shows the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) fell to 6.15% this week.
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After starting the year close to 7%, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage moved to its lowest level in 2025 this week, said Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater.
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The 15-year FRM averaged 5.44%, down from 5.50% a week earlier, and well below the year-ago level of 6.13%.
Mortgage rates ended 2025 on a gentler note, offering homebuyers a sliver of relief after another year of elevated borrowing costs. Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.15% this week, down slightly from 6.18% the prior week. One year earlier, the same benchmark averaged 6.91%.
The decline matters because the 30-year fixed rate is the backbone of the U.S. home-loan market, shaping affordability for millions of buyers. Freddie Macs Sam Khater framed the move as a positive signal heading into the new year, noting rates began 2025 near 7% before sliding to their lowest level of the year in the final week.
The shorter-term 15-year fixed rate also moved lower, averaging 5.44% (down from 5.50% a week earlier), and sitting well below the 6.13% level seen a year ago. That drop is especially relevant for homeowners who are closer to refinancing territorythough most borrowers with older, ultra-low pandemic-era mortgages still have little incentive to swap into todays rates.
Affordability is still an issue
Mortgage rates dont move in lockstep with the Federal Reserves short-term policy rate. Instead, theyre heavily influenced by longer-term bond yieldsespecially the 10-year Treasuryplus expectations for inflation, economic growth, and investor demand for mortgage-backed securities.
Even with the latest decline, affordability remains strained in many markets. A recent Zillow analysis found that to restore typical affordability (mortgage payments below 30% of median household income), the national average 30-year rate would need to fall more than about 0.4 percentage points from levels around the low-6% rangeand in some high-cost metros, even dramatic rate drops wouldnt be enough on their own.
In other words, lower rates help, but prices, inventory, insurance and tax costs, and household incomes also have to cooperate.
The 2026 mortgage rate forecast: modest improvement, not a plunge
Looking into 2026, major forecasters largely agree on one theme: rates may ease, but the back to 5% quickly dream is not the base case. The disagreement is more about how much relief arrivesand when.
There are two big forecasts to watch:
- Fannie Mae: below 6% by late 2026, but not far below. Fannie Maes Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group has projected mortgage rates ending 2026 around 5.9%, implying the 30-year could dip under the 6% threshold toward the back half of the year.
- Mortgage Bankers Association: A stuck in the 6s outlook.
MBAs December 2025 Mortgage Finance Forecast is more cautious. Its table shows the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.3%6.4% through 2026, with Q4 2026 at 6.4%.
Put together, the range of mainstream expectations suggests 2026 may look less like a rate breakdown and more like a slow driftwith periodic volatility if inflation or the broader economy surprises.
Posted: 2026-01-02 12:46:00
















