Job-seekers voice growing uncertainty
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Job growth slowed in December, with payroll employment up by 50,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%, signaling a labor market that remains stable but has lost momentum.
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Workers are growing more anxious about job prospects, as expectations of finding a new job fell to a record low while fears of job loss increased, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey.
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Underlying strains are building, including a rise in long-term unemployment, more involuntary part-time work, and worsening delinquency expectations among households.
The U.S. job market ended the year on a relatively steady footing, but new data suggest rising unease beneath the surface as workers confront fewer opportunities and heightened uncertainty.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 50,000 in December, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%.
Employment gains continued in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance, partially offset by job losses in retail trade. Overall, the figures point to a labor market that is no longer accelerating but has not yet entered a clear downturn.
Household survey data showed little month-to-month change in the number of unemployed Americans, which stood at 7.5 million. Unemployment rates were largely stable across major demographic groups, including adult men and women, teenagers, and racial and ethnic categories. Labor force participation and the employment-population ratio also held steady, continuing a pattern of limited movement seen throughout the year.
Growing stress
However, longer-term indicators suggest growing stress. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more remained at 1.9 million in December but has risen by nearly 400,000 over the past year. Long-term unemployed workers now account for about one-quarter of all unemployed Americans. At the same time, 5.3 million people were working part-time for economic reasons, a figure that has increased substantially over the year, reflecting reduced hours or difficulty finding full-time work.
Concerns about the labor market were echoed in the Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorks December 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations. The survey found that the perceived probability of finding a job after losing one fell sharply to 43.1%, the lowest level since the series began.
Lower-income households the most worried
The decline was especially pronounced among lower-income households, older workers, and those with less formal education. Meanwhile, the perceived probability of losing a job over the next year rose to 15.2%, above its recent average.
Despite these worries, expectations about overall unemployment a year from now edged down slightly, suggesting that consumers see risks rising at the individual level even as they remain uncertain about broader labor market conditions. Earnings growth expectations also softened, with respondents anticipating slower wage gains than earlier in the year.
The survey also highlighted mounting financial pressure on households. Delinquency expectations climbed to their highest level since the early days of the pandemic, even as respondents expressed modest optimism about their longer-term financial outlook.
Taken together, the data portray a labor market that is still adding jobs and maintaining a moderate unemployment rate, but one in which workers are increasingly uneasy. Slower hiring, rising long-term unemployment, and declining confidence in job mobility suggest that while the job market remains resilient, it may be entering a more challenging phase as economic uncertainty persists.
Posted: 2026-01-09 13:49:51

















