The US economy has likely stalled, with a 50% risk of recession in 2 years, say Barclays analysts. What to consider if the Fed doesn’t cut rates soon

In a research note published Aug. 25, Barclays economists shared their view that the U.S. economy has likely entered a “stall state.” The bank's “tipping points” model now places odds of a recession ... Read More

Targeting Fed’s independence puts economy at grave risk

Despite the ill effects of the policies of tariffs and immigration, the president is gaining unprecedented control over the Federal Reserve, Jon Talton writes. Read More

The Fed’s Own Economists Disagree Where the Economy Is Heading

The median forecast among the central bankers puts the fed funds rate at 3.6 percent by year-end, though projections span from 2.9 percent to 4.4 percent. Powell, asked whether the historic downward ... Read More

Federal Reserve Predicts High Inflation Will Persist for More than Seven Years Post-Pandemic

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell once called he pandemic-era burst of high inflation "transitory." Fed officials now expect it to last more than seven years from when it started. Read More

The Fed faces economic uncertainty and political pressure as it decides whether to cut rates

The Federal Reserve is facing economic uncertainty and political pressure as it meets this week to decide whether to cut interest rates. Read More

The economy is reliant on the ‘fortunes of the well-to-do’ says Moody’s—if the ultra-rich get nervy that means recession

Mark Zandi says of the rich: "If they turn more cautious, for whatever reason, the economy has a big problem." ... Read More

Takeaways: If you’re confused about what’s next for the US economy, so is the Fed

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered interest rates for the first time since December to support America’s faltering labor market. However, the economy’s path forward looks murky, according to the ... Read More

Trump's attempt to fire Lisa Cook makes stagflation in the US more likely, strategist says

The worst-case scenario for the US economy may have just inched a bit closer. Komal Sri-Kumar — the president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies — is blaming President Donald Trump's latest escalation of ... Read More

The Fed Has No Good Options as Hiring Wobbles and Inflation Picks Up

The central bank is grappling with how quickly to lower interest rates after restarting cuts on Wednesday, amid mixed economic signals and a relentless White House pressure campaign. Read More

July PCE Forecasts Show Inflation Above Fed’s Target

The annual rate of PCE inflation is expected to be 2.6% in July, the same as in June. Tariffs imposed by the White House are putting upward pressure on goods prices, and services prices are also ... Read More

IMF says US economy showing strains; tariffs pose some risks to inflation

The U.S. economy is showing some strains after years of resilience, with domestic demand moderating and job growth slowing, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday. Read More

Fed's Williams says tariffs are not amplifying inflation, keeping door open for possible rate cut in September

New York Fed President John Williams is a voting member of the Fed's interest-rate committee. New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday he has not seen evidence that higher White House ... Read More