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Coffee and cereal lead the increase

February 10, 2026

• The ConsumerAffairs Datasembly Shopping Cart Index rose 5.9% year over year in January, increasing from $147.71 in January 2025 to $156.43 in January 2026 an $8.72 jump for the same basket of everyday items.
  

• Coffee, cereal, and paper products drove much of the increase, while a handful of staples including eggs, butter, and bottled water offered modest relief.
  

• Food inflation remains uneven, with sharp increases in packaged and branded goods offset by flat or declining prices in select dairy and pantry items.
  

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The cost of a typical grocery run continued to rise in January, according to the ConsumerAffairs Datasembly Shopping Cart Index, underscoring how inflation is still shaping household budgets in uneven ways.

The index, which tracks prices for a standardized basket of 24 common grocery and household items, increased from $147.71 in January 2025 to $156.43 in January 2026, a 5.9% year-over-year increase. While that gain is smaller than the double-digit spikes consumers saw earlier in the inflation cycle, it signals that price pressures have not fully eased.

Coffee and cereal lead price gains

Some of the biggest increases came from pantry and breakfast staples. Whole bean coffee jumped 26.9%, rising from $12.22 to $15.51 the largest dollar and percentage increase in the index. Coffee prices have been pressured by weather-related supply issues and higher transportation costs.

Cereal also stood out. Honey Nut Cereal (family size) climbed 24.3%, rising from $5.60 to $6.96, while American cheese singles rose 11.3%, reaching $6.02. Branded packaged foods have been especially sensitive to higher input and marketing costs, according to retail pricing data.

Household essentials keep creeping up

Non-food essentials continued their slow upward march. Paper towels rose 4.3%, increasing by a dollar to $23.99, and toilet paper climbed 6.6%, reaching $12.48 for a 12-count pack. These products tend to move gradually, but their higher price points amplify the impact on monthly budgets.

Laundry detergent also edged higher, rising from $13.05 to $13.33. (Liquid dish detergent was included in the basket, but January 2026 pricing was unavailable and not factored into the year-over-year comparison.)

Some relief at the dairy case

Not every aisle saw increases. Organic eggs fell 7.9%, dropping from $6.68 to $6.15, a notable reversal after years of volatility. Salted butter declined 8.8%, and bottled spring water slipped 3.5%.

Other staples, including milk and bread, were flat year over year a welcome sign for shoppers who rely on these basics.

Inflation isnt gone its just selective

Overall, the January data suggests inflation has become more selective rather than universal. Prices for indulgences and branded packaged foods are climbing faster than staples, while some commodities are stabilizing or retreating.

For consumers, that means grocery bills may feel unpredictable not because everything is getting more expensive, but because the items people notice most often are.

As 2026 unfolds, the Datasembly Shopping Cart Index will continue to track whether these price pressures broaden again or remain concentrated in specific categories.

Ford Motor reported a big loss for 2025 because of its troubled electric vehicle division, which it has significantly scaled back.
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Source:www.nytimes.com

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