Goldman Sachs as much as two-thirds of the tariffs are baked into prices

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• Goldman Sachs economists now estimate that U.S. consumers will absorb as much as two-thirds of tariff costs by October, up sharply from a 22 percent share in June.

• The shift comes as firms that initially ate most of the burden begin passing costs along through higher retail prices, particularly in sectors like appliances and electronics.

• Goldman warns that the tariff-induced price increases could push core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation to around 3.2 percent by years end well above the Federal Reserves 2 percent target.

In a new analysis, Goldman Sachs is sounding the alarm: the cost of U.S. import tariffs is moving off the balance sheets of companies and increasingly onto everyday households. What once was a shock absorbed by firms is now becoming embedded in the sticker price of consumer goods.

As of June, Goldman estimates that U.S. businesses absorbed roughly 64% of the tariff costs, consumers about 22%, and foreign exporters the remaining 14%. But the firm projects that dynamic began to invert this month: about 67% of costs could land on consumers, while businesses share shrinks to under 10% and exporters share rises modestly.

Goldmans economists base their estimates on historical tariff pass-through patterns and the assumption that firms gradually adjust pricing rather than absorbing higher costs indefinitely. In effect, many companies are acting as buffers in the early phase of tariff implementation compressing margins or internal cost lines but expect to recoup those losses by raising consumer prices later.

Inflation risks

The implications of this shift are significant for inflation and monetary policy. Goldman forecasts core PCE inflation (the Feds preferred gauge) rising to about 3.2 percent year-over-year by December a full point above what its economists estimate in the absence of new tariffs. A portion of that around 0.7 percentage point may be directly attributable to tariff pass-through.

That in turn complicates the Federal Reserves path: while some factions argue tariffs are a one-off shock, Goldmans view suggests sustained inflationary pressure that may constrain rate cuts or force continued vigilance.

The findings run counter to messaging from the White House that foreign exporters would bear the tariff cost, a claim repeated vigorously as a defense of the trade policy. The White House maintains that while there might be adjustment pain, the burden will be ultimately paid abroad.

Some companies have already started raising prices especially for goods heavily reliant on imported components, such as electronics and appliances. That suggests the pass-through is not only a theoretical projection but already underway.

What it means for households

For consumers, especially lower- and middle-income households, the tariff tax is less transparent but very real baked into higher prices for everyday goods from refrigerators to smartphones.

And with inflation already tightening household budgets, the extra burden could squeeze discretionary spending, reduce real incomes, and amplify economic unease.

If the trend continues, the consumer-facing cost of tariffs may become a central battleground in debates over trade policy, fiscal stimulus, and the Feds inflation mandates.

Deloittes annual retail survey projects modest growth in spending

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• Deloitte expects 2025 holiday retail sales to grow between 2.9% and 3.4%, reaching up to $1.62 trillion.

• E-commerce sales are forecast to rise 7% to 9%, totaling as much as $310.7 billion.

• Steady growth in disposable personal income may offset inflation and economic uncertainty.

U.S. holiday retail sales are projected to increase modestly in 2025 as consumers navigate economic uncertainty while continuing to spend, according to Deloittes annual holiday retail forecast.

The consulting firm predicts overall holiday sales will climb between 2.9% and 3.4% compared with 2024, totaling between $1.61 trillion and $1.62 trillion for the November through January shopping season.

The forecast suggests slower growth than last years 4.2% increase, which brought total holiday sales to $1.57 trillion, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. However, Deloitte notes that the spending outlook remains solid despite persistent inflation and concerns about consumer debt.

Online shopping is expected to remain a major driver of holiday spending. Deloitte forecasts e-commerce sales will rise between 7% and 9% year-over-year, totaling between $305 billion and $310.7 billion. Thats up from an estimated $285 billion in online holiday sales last year.

Value and convenience

Consumers continue to turn to digital channels to find value and convenience, said Natalie Martini, Deloitte vice chair and U.S. retail and consumer products leader. Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses.

A key factor supporting retail spending is expected growth in disposable personal income (DPI), which Deloitte projects will rise 3.1% to 5.4% this season. According to Akrur Barua, economist at Deloitte Insights, DPI remains one of the strongest predictors of both retail and e-commerce sales.

Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending, Barua said. He added that while inflation will likely weigh on sales volume, it could boost the dollar value of overall retail spending.

Consumer resilience

Despite macroeconomic pressures, Deloitte expects the 2025 holiday season to reflect the resilience of U.S. consumers. Shoppers are expected to continue seeking deals and leveraging e-commerce to stretch their budgets, particularly amid rising prices and debt concerns.

As the holiday season approaches, retailers that prioritize value, convenience, and digital engagement are likely to capture the largest share of consumer spending during this pivotal period.

Halloween spend is up to $114.45 so every trick could be a money-saving treat

By Kyle James, Reporter

• Average Halloween spend is hitting a record $114.45 per person in 2025 (NRF).
• Candy target: 12 per fun-sizewait until the week before Halloween and mix chocolate + gummies to hit the mark.
• Post-Halloween power buy window: Nov 13Spirit costumes typically drop 25% 50%, and dcor at many stores hits up to 75% off.

Halloween gets expensive fast. After you buy candy, costumes, food for a party, maybe a decoration for the yard, it can easily blow your monthly budget. According to the National Retail Federation, the average per-person spending for 2025 is set to reach a record high of $114.45. But with a little strategy, you can easily lower that number without being the house that hands out raisins.

Candy: chase the 12 per fun-size rule

When it comes to getting ready for trick-or-treaters, I shoot for only buying candy when it hits the 12 per fun-size piece. Thats my line in the sand.

The secret? Wait until the week before Halloween to buy. This is when retailers start to clear out their candy supply at a discount. Stores that typically hit this mark include Walmart, drugstores like CVS and Walgreens, and even your local grocery stores get close when you use a BOGO offer or digital coupon.

How I do it:

Check unit price, not the bag price. A 65-count bag for $15 is 23 each. No good. Wait for that bag to drop below $10 (and it will), then youre getting close to the 12 mark.

Mix one chocolate bag + one gummy/lollipop bag. Gummies and lollipops are a lot cheaper than chocolate, up to 40%. So be sure to buy some of each and mix them together and avoid paying chocolate prices for every piece.

Split with a neighbor so nobody overbuys. This way you wont be stuck eating 87 fun-size Snickers come November 2.

Costumes: build a $25 look that doesnt look cheap

Store costumes are expensive, especially when you visit places like Spirit Halloween where its easy to drop $50 for a costume youll wear once.

Instead, consider grabbing one anchor piece at a thrift store (black dress, army jacket, blazer, trench coat, denim overalls) and finish it with Dollar Tree accessories.

When you do it right, youre looking at a thrift anchor ($8$12), two dollar-store accessories ($2.50$5), face paint ($3$5), and one prop ($5). Done.

Here are some of my favorite repeatable builds using the anchor piece method:

An 80s rocker: thrifted leather/pleather jacket + eyeliner + hairspray + rock band tee.

Cowboy/cowgirl: thrifted plaid shirt + thrifted belt + bandana + cardboard belt buckle.

Ghost but make it funny: thrifted trench coat + white sheet + sunglasses.

Rosie the Riveter: thrifted chambray shirt + red bandana + rolled jeans.

Bob Ross: thrifted denim/chambray shirt + curly wig (or tousled hair) + DIY palette (cardboard with paint blobs) + paintbrush.

Tourist: loud shirt/Hawaiian + shorts + socks-with-sandals + sunglasses + printed map or camera-on-lanyard.

Decor: dupe the look, not the price

When it comes to Halloween dcor that wont break the bank, you can easily get the Pinterest vibe with three big moves. Focus on these instead of buying a bunch of little budget busters that will leave you wanting more.

Heres my 3-piece formula thatll get your home in the spirit for less.

1. One large focal item by the front door: could be a tall DIY porch sign or a thrifted lantern filled with dollar-store faux webs and a puck light.

2. Lighting: swap out your porch clear bulbs to orange or use warm-white string lights you already own and wind them through branches or a nearby railing.

3. Texture: drop a $10 straw bale by the door, set two pumpkins on top, then add movement with a few strips of black fabric (or trash-bag ribbons) tied to the twine that holds the bale together. Then let the strips hang free and flutter in the breeze.

Pro Tip: Buy your pumpkins at a produce stand or farmers market toward closing or ask for the ugly bin. Youll score a markdown on the surface-scuffed pumpkins that carve just fine.

Party on $40: board + bowl + one bake

Having a son that was born on Halloween, my wife and I have hosted our fair share of budget-friendly parties on the 31st. We always focused on a simple and colorful food spread that feels themed without 12 separate recipes.

Heres what to focus on:

Snack board: Heres where you get creative and think of as many orange, black, and white foods as you can. Think cheddar cubes, carrot sticks, black licorice bites, Oreos, pretzels, and marshmallows. Then place them on a snack board in stripes or whatever charcuterie pattern you can come up with. You end up with a simple, budget-friendly food display that fits the mood.

Big punch of bowl: A 2-ingredient sherbet punch (orange sherbet + lemon-lime soda) with floating gummy worms will be a hit. If you want to go the extra step, buy a small piece of dry ice from the grocery store and put in the bowl to get the witchs brew steam effect.

One bake: Try your hand at mummy dogs which are hot dogs wrapped with crescent dough with two mustard eyes. Or a graveyard brownie slab which is simply box brownies, crushed cookies or frosting for dirt, then topped with Milano tombstones cookies.

Stretch the budget with a post-Halloween power buy list

Did you pass on a Halloween decoration or costume this year because of sticker shock? If so, November 13rd is the time to buy Halloween items at a deep discount and store until next October.

Items to consider:

LED string lights and net lights. You can find great clearance deals on Halloween specific lights at Walmart, Target, and even drugstores. Often up to 75% off the original retail price.

Costumes for less. Most pop-up Spirit Halloween stores close 2-3 days after Halloween, providing a great chance to save on next years costume. Typically, costumes are 25% off on November 1st, then drop to 50% off on the 2nd and 3rd. Decorations usually start at 50% off and stay there until they close their doors on the 3rd.

Yard stakes, extension cords, timers. Not fun things per say, but theyre the things you kick yourself for paying full price later.

Face paint and costume makeup. Keep in mind that its the same stuff youll need for school plays or spirit week. So, buy it at a big discount before youre stuck paying full-price down the road.

Storage: Grab one black and orange storage bin, label it Halloween, and force yourself to fit everything in that one bin next year. Okay, maybe youll need two, but hey no worries, theyre pretty cheap in early November.

Experts explain how processing, antioxidants, and daily habits influence the health benefits of each drink

• Both tea and coffee deliver beneficial plant compounds especially polyphenols that may help with inflammation, stress, and general wellness.

• Researchers spotlight differences in antioxidant levels, processing effects (especially for black tea and dark roast coffee), and cautions around additives.

• The winner depends on context: your drink choice, timing, and what you mix into your cup make a big difference.

If youve ever been asked whether coffee or tea is healthier, youre not alone this age-old rivalry sparks plenty of debate at cafs, kitchen tables, and wellness circles.

At UNLV, two nutrition scientists, Arpita Basu and Samantha Coogan, recently took a closer look at this matchup.

Their goal? To demystify the benefits and trade-offs of each drink, and help everyday people better understand how both can contribute to a healthy lifestyle.

Coffee and tea as beverages have a lot of benefits, particularly from the polyphenol side, Basu said in a news release. The polyphenols are the most abundant type of plant-derived compounds, and they are widely present in teas and coffee beans.

How the experts compared them

Rather than declaring a clear winner, Basu and Coogan emphasize that both coffee and tea bring valuable compounds to the table especially polyphenols, a class of plant-derived substances known for antioxidant and stress-modulating properties.

They examined how processing affects those compounds. For instance, black tea undergoes oxidation and fermentation, which reduces antioxidant levels compared to green tea. On the coffee side, they explored how roasting levels influence antioxidant content, noting that lighter roasts tend to retain more of these compounds than dark roasts.

They also considered real-world drinking habits: when during the day people drink these beverages, how much sugar or creamer they add, and how those extras might interfere with the potential health benefits.

In their discussion, they factored in known risks too like how teas tannins can reduce iron absorption (a concern for people with anemia) and how caffeine late in the day may disrupt sleep or impact cardiovascular health.

The results

Heres where things get interesting: theres no one-size-fits-all better beverage. Instead, drink choice depends on your body, habits, and how you drink it.

• Tea (especially green): Because its less processed, green tea retains more antioxidants. Basus own research suggests that drinking about four cups daily may help reduce cholesterol, body weight, and cardiovascular risk especially for those predisposed to type 2 diabetes. That said, the tannins may inhibit iron absorption when consumed with meals, which matters for people dealing with iron deficiency.

• Coffee: Even though roasting can diminish some antioxidants, coffee still delivers plenty of beneficial compounds, especially if consumed in moderation and without excessive additives. Coogan recommends drinking water before your first sip (since coffee is mildly diuretic) and avoiding caffeine too close to bedtime.

• The additive factor: According to Basu and Coogan, sugar, heavy creams, and flavor syrups can undermine many of the positive compounds in both beverages.
  

Theres this perception that coffee is bad for you compared to tea, Coogan said in the news release. A lot of people say that when theyre sick or theyre trying to lose weight, they replace coffee with tea. But you can still get the same benefits if you switch to black coffee.

For me, coffee is more of a ritual, and I think its like that for a lot of people. As a dietitian, even if its just placebo giving you that little dopamine hit to satisfy your craving, I say go for it. But if you drink it with a lot of added sugar, make sure you drink it with protein-rich foods and/or healthy fats.

New research explores how gut bacteria and mood might be linked

• The latest review evidence shows the gut and brain communicate in complex, two-way ways, making it hard to know which comes first.

• Experiments in animals, changes in psychiatric drug effects, and small human trials (with diet, probiotics, or transplants) suggest gut microbes can affect mood and anxiety.

• Authors stress we still cant claim the gut causes mental illness in people but the connection is promising enough to pursue bigger, longer studies.

You may have heard the phrase gut feeling, but now scientists are looking at whether our gut biology really does influence whats going on in our heads.

However, an important question remains: does a changed gut lead to mental health shifts, or do mental health issues lead to a changed gut or both? To tackle that, researchers from the University of South Australia put together a detailed review of all the current evidence.

The gutbrain connection is one of the most exciting frontiers in mental health research, researcher Srinivas Kamath said in a news release. We already know that the trillions of microbes in our digestive system talk to the brain through chemical and neural pathways, affecting our mood, stress levels and even cognition.

But the big question is whether changes in gut bacteria actually drive mental illness or mirror whats happening elsewhere in the body.

The study

Rather than doing a new experiment, the team conducted a review article. In this kind of work, researchers gather, compare, and critically analyze many prior experiments and studies to look for patterns, gaps, and directions for future work.

They organized the evidence into three conceptual possibilities:

1. Causative role gut changes drive mental health changes.

2. Correlative role gut and brain changes are linked but both result from something else.

3. Bidirectional role the gut and brain influence each other in a feedback loop.
   

To make this case, they reviewed:

• Animal and lab experiments manipulating microbial populations

• Human observational studies associating gut profiles with psychiatric disorders

• Early human interventions (diet, probiotics, fecal microbiota transplants)

They also examined how psychiatric drugs may themselves alter gut microbes, complicating cause-and-effect interpretations.

They paid close attention to the mechanistic pathways meaning, how microbes might affect brain health: through metabolites (microbial byproducts), immune system signaling, or via nerve and hormonal pathways.

The results

From the review, several compelling findings emerged:

• In animal models, shifting gut microbiomes can lead to changes in brain chemistry, stress behavior, and anxiety or depressionlike symptoms.

• In people with mood or psychiatric disorders like depression or schizophrenia, disrupted or altered gut microbial patterns are often observed.

• Some small human trials using probiotics, dietary interventions, or fecal microbial transplants have produced mood or anxiety improvements in certain participants.

• Its also striking that many psychiatric medications appear to influence gut microbes, which itself supports the idea of a gut-brain link.
  

However, the authors are careful to warn against overselling. Because many studies are small, short-term, or observe associations rather than manipulate cause and effect, the findings cant say that altering your gut will reliably cure or prevent mental illness.

To move forward, the researchers call for larger, more diverse, longer-term clinical trials. They also emphasize tracking how gut changes evolve over time and accounting for differences in diet, environment, culture, and baseline gut communities.

By unlocking the guts role in mental health, we can develop practical, scalable tools for prevention and care, giving clinicians and patients new options to manage wellbeing, researcher Dr. Paul Joyce said in the release. Mental health doesnt start and end in the brain. Its a whole-body issue and the gut may be the missing piece of the puzzle.