Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast

Today 538 published our official forecast ... of that election overestimated Biden's vote margin by 4.6 points — about 1.5 times the average 3-point bias for presidential elections since 1972. Read More

Biden’s odds best since May in new 538 model

The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday ... Read More

Can Harris beat Trump? Presidential prognosticator's preliminary data says yes.

Allan Lichtman said his final prediction for the White House contest will come in August. But as of Friday, his data says Kamala Harris will win. Read More

Why 538's forecast hasn't moved much post-debate

In 538’s national presidential polling average, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by 2.1 percentage points. 538 Photo Illustration Yet our forecast for the 2024 election ... Read More

Biden Vs. Trump 2024 Election Polls: Trump Expands His Lead—As More Democrats Pressure Biden To Drop Out

Trump is up by four points in both of Morning Consult’s ... New York Times/Siena poll taken July 9-12. An ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post poll released last week found Biden and Trump are tied ... Read More

What Trump's narrow edge over Biden could mean for campaign after president ends re-election bid

President Biden dropped out of the presidential race on Sunday, opening the doors to Vice President Harris or another Democrat to take the mantle ahead of the DNC. Read More

Harris polled slightly ahead of Biden versus Trump before Sunday's switch-up: CBS News poll analysis

Just before President Biden stepped aside as the Democratic Party's nominee, a CBS News poll tested a hypothetical match-up between GOP nominee and former President Donald Trump and Vice President ... Read More

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

As of July 21 at 2 p.m. Eastern, President Joe Biden has suspended his campaign for the 2024 Democratic Party nomination for president. We will publish an election forecast including the new ... Read More

What the polls say after the first presidential debate

In 538's national polling average, Trump now leads by 1.4 percentage points over Biden, while the two candidates were just about tied on June ... 538's presidential election forecast, which ... Read More

Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast

Today 538 published our official forecast for the 2024 presidential election ... shows President Joe Biden locked in a practically tied race with former President Donald Trump, both in the ... Read More

Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast

At launch, our forecast shows President Joe Biden locked in a practically tied race with former President Donald Trump ... election overestimated Biden's vote margin by 4.6 points — about 1.5 times ... Read More