Home prices are beginning to retreat from unrealistic highs

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Nearly 6% of U.S. home sellers risk losing money if they sell nowup from 4.4% last year.
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Post-pandemic buyers face the highest risk, especially those who purchased condos.
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San Francisco, Austin, and Oakland lead in at-risk home listings; Providence, RI shows minimal risk.
If you bought your home in 2018, you should have plenty of home equity. But, if you purchased a home in 2023, you may have purchased near the top of the market. Any decline in home prices could be painful.
A new report from real estate broker Redfin said thats the unpleasant fact for nearly 6% of home sellers, who the report says are at risk of selling their property for less than what they originally paid.
The study, which analyzed active listings across the country in May, sheds light on how home value risks vary by location, timing of purchase, and property type. While some metro areas remain resilient, others especially where demand and prices soared during the pandemic are now seeing sellers struggle to break even.
Post-pandemic buyers are most vulnerable
Homeowners who purchased their properties after July 2022 are most exposed, with 16.4% of them at risk of a loss if they sell in todays market. This contrasts sharply with the 9% of at-risk sellers who bought during the pandemic (July 2020July 2022), and just 1.8% of those who bought pre-pandemic.
Heres a sobering fact: In January 2020, the National Association of Realtors reported the median home price in the U.S. was $268,600 after a healthy 6% increase over January 2019. In May 2025, the median home price was $422,800, a staggering 57.4% rise in just over five years.
Redfin attributes the surge in home prices to the sky-high prices buyers were willing to pay during the post-pandemic buying frenzy. Record-low mortgage rates and intense competition led many buyers to overpay. Since mid-2022, however, prices have softened as mortgage rates rose and demand cooled.
Sellers may have overextended themselves
Sellers who bought post-pandemic may have overextended themselves, thinking that prices would keep rising, said Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan. Now, some are forced to choose between taking a loss or delisting their home.
The risk of loss varies dramatically by metro area. San Francisco tops the list with nearly 20% of active listings likely to sell at a loss. Austin (13.8%) and Oakland (11%) follow closely behind, highlighting the lingering impact of pandemic-driven housing surges in the Sun Belt and West Coast.
Conversely, sellers in Providence, R.I., and New Brunswick, N.J., are relatively safe, with just 0.5% of listings at risk. Anaheim, Calif., also shows strength with only 1% of listings in danger of selling at a loss.
Single-family home sellers in Austin (13.2%) and San Antonio (10.2%) are especially vulnerable, while East Coast markets like Boston, Providence, and New Brunswick post sub-1% risk levels.
Posted: 2025-06-30 11:08:03