Forecasters struggle amid changing climate, shrinking resources
- Forecasters revise outlook as 2024's bizarre hurricane behavior throws seasonal models into question.
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Despite a midseason lull, last year saw a record number of late hurricanes, pushing the season into hyperactive status.
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Concerns grow over weakened federal weather agency's ability to respond during peak storm months.
As the most dangerous weeks of hurricane season approach, meteorologists are finding it harder than ever to forecast what the Atlantic might deliver a challenge made worse by budget cuts hampering the U.S. weather agencys response capabilities.
The 2024 hurricane season, initially expected to be overactive, defied predictions and left forecasters scrambling to explain why weeks passed with little to no storm activity. The confusion has prompted a recalibration: researchers at Colorado State University, one of the leading seasonal forecast groups, have dialed back their expectations, trimming their outlook from nine storms to eight before the official end of the season on Nov. 30.
It was bizarre, and I definitely felt like a complete moron for a while, said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State. Basically everything that we used last year was screaming: This will be a busy season.
Instead, the Atlantic went eerily quiet from late August through most of September 2024. An initial postmortem from a team of 20 scientists points to an unusual blend of factors: persistent warm air layers, intermittent dry pockets over the ocean, strong wind shear, and a strange pattern that saw some storm systems veer northward before they could intensify over record-warm tropical waters.
It was hyperactive, after all
Still, the quiet didnt last. Once storms began to churn again, they did so with force. The 2024 season ended up spawning seven hurricanes between late September and November, the most ever recorded so late in the season. Three of those were Category 3 or stronger, tipping the year into hyperactive territory, despite the early lull.
The shifting patterns are raising questions about the reliability of traditional forecasting models. Scientists rely on a complex cocktail of ocean temperatures, wind patterns, and atmospheric conditions to predict storm frequency and strength. But as climate change throws more curveballs, those models are under increasing strain.
And theres another layer of concern: the National Weather Service and other federal agencies responsible for tracking and responding to storms are grappling with staffing and funding shortages. The system hasnt yet faced a major hurricane since these constraints set in a reality that worries emergency managers and local officials.
Looking ahead, there are signs the Atlantic could heat up literally. The stretch of ocean where many cyclones form was nearly 0.9F (0.5C) above normal as of July 23, one of the hottest readings on record for this time of year. That warm water is like fuel for storms, and unless tropical systems emerge to siphon it off, conditions may become even more volatile.
The heat is building, Klotzbach warned, and its just waiting for something to tap into it.
Posted: 2025-07-28 16:20:39