Job worries and inflation drive sentiment

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• The Consumer Confidence Index dropped 3.6 points in September, falling to 94.2.

• The Present Situation Index tumbled 7.0 points to 125.4, its sharpest one-month decline in a year.

• The Expectations Index slipped to 73.4, remaining below the recession-warning threshold of 80 for the eighth consecutive month.

Consumer confidence eroded further in September, marking the lowest reading since April, as Americans grew more uneasy about current business conditions and job availability, according to data from The Conference Board.

The headline index fell to 94.2, down from 97.8 in August, reflecting mounting economic unease. While short-term expectations weakened only modestly, consumers view of present conditions plunged, with the Present Situation Index down seven points to 125.4, its steepest monthly drop since September 2024.

Consumers appraisal of the current job market fell for the ninth straight month to a new multiyear low, said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board. That aligns with the steady decline in job openings. The present situation component saw its largest drop in a year.

Concern about jobs

The job market weighed heavily on consumer sentiment:

• Just 26.9% of consumers said jobs were plentiful, down from 30.2% in August.

• Those calling jobs hard to get held steady at 19.1%, but the overall deterioration suggests further cooling in labor demand.

At the same time, inflation reemerged as the top consumer worry. Mentions of prices rose in September, surpassing tariffs and trade concerns as the leading driver of negative sentiment. Yet inflation expectations edged slightly lower, with the average 12-month outlook dipping to 5.8% from 6.1% in August.

Demographic and political divides

Confidence moved in opposite directions across age groups:

• Under-35 consumers grew more optimistic, while those over 35 lost confidence.

• By income, results were mixed, with no clear pattern, though households earning between $25,000 and $35,000 and those making above $200,000 saw notable declines.

Political affiliation also played a role. Confidence improved modestly among Republicans and Democrats, but dropped sharply among Independents, suggesting a growing divide in perceptions of the economy.

Family finances take a hit

Americans views of their own finances dimmed:

• Assessments of current financial situations recorded the steepest one-month drop since the measure began in July 2022.

• Expectations for future finances weakened only slightly.

Meanwhile, the share of consumers who believe the U.S. is already in recession rose in September. Those who said a recession is very likely over the next year also climbed to the highest level since May.

Consumers purchasing plans were mixed in September:

• Car buying plans weakened, both new and used.

• Home buying intentions jumped to a four-month high.

• Electronics purchases rose, especially smartphones and TVs, though refrigerator purchases fell.

• Travel intentions slumped, with vacation plans hitting the lowest level since Aprildragged down by fewer plans for overseas trips.

Markets outlook: Slight uptick in optimism

Despite gloomier views on jobs and finances, consumer sentiment toward financial markets ticked up:

• Nearly 49% expect stock prices to rise over the next year, unchanged from July and August.

• The share expecting declines fell to 27.6%, down from 30.2%.

• Interest rate expectations softened slightly, with fewer consumers predicting higher borrowing costs.

The bottom line

The September report suggests that while Americans are increasingly worried about the presentparticularly jobs and household financessome cling to hope for steadier income and stronger stock markets ahead. But with the Expectations Index stuck below recession-warning levels since February, economists caution that consumer resilience may continue to erode into year-end.

Consumers are growing more cautious, especially about jobs, Guichard said. With confidence at a five-month low, the risk of weaker spending in the months ahead is rising.

Regulators say Zillow paid $100 million to sideline Redfin as a competitor

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs

• FTC sues Zillow and Redfin over a $100 million deal that regulators say illegally removed Redfin as a competitor in online rental advertising.

• Regulators warn of consumer harm, including higher advertising costs for landlords, reduced innovation, and fewer choices for renters.

• The lawsuit seeks to unwind the agreement, citing violations of antitrust law and working in coordination with state attorneys general.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has filed suit against Zillow and Redfin, accusing the two real estate platforms of striking an illegal deal that removed Redfin as a rival in the online rental advertising market.

According to the complaint, Zillow paid Redfin $100 million and other compensation in February 2025 in exchange for dismantling its advertising business for multifamily rental properties.

Under the arrangement, Redfin allegedly agreed to:

• Terminate contracts with its advertising customers and help Zillow take them over

• Stop competing in the rental advertising business for up to nine years, and

• Syndicate Zillows listings exclusively, turning Redfins rental pages into a mirror of Zillows content.

The FTC said the companies marketed the move as a partnership, but in practice, regulators argue it amounts to a payoff designed to protect Zillow from competition.

Paying off a competitor to stop competing against you is a violation of federal antitrust laws, said Daniel Guarnera, director of the FTCs Bureau of Competition. Zillow paid millions of dollars to eliminate Redfin as an independent competitor in an already concentrated advertising marketone thats critical for renters, property managers, and the health of the overall U.S. housing market.

Consumer impact

The FTC contends that Zillows agreement with Redfin will harm both property managers and renters by stifling competition. Regulators warn that the arrangement could:

• Drive up the cost of advertising rental properties

• Limit innovation in how listings are presented and how renters search, and

• Reduce incentives for either company to improve user experience.

The complaint further alleges that hundreds of Redfin employees were fired as part of the deal, with Zillow rehiring some of its choice picks.

For renters, the FTC says the deal could mean fewer features, less transparency, and a narrower range of search options at a time when affordability is already strained in the housing market.

Legal and regulatory angle

The lawsuit claims the Zillow-Redfin pact violates Section 7 of the Clayton Act, which prohibits acquisitions that may substantially lessen competition. The agency is seeking to block the agreement, and may pursue remedies such as unwinding parts of the deal, requiring divestitures, or reconstructing parts of Redfins rental business to restore competition.

The FTC also worked alongside several state attorneys general in investigating the case and says it expects continued cooperation as the lawsuit proceeds.

Online listing services (ILSs) like Zillow, Rent.com, and ApartmentGuide.com are a key gateway for millions of renters searching for their next home. With fewer major players competing in the market, regulators argue, property managers may face higher costs to advertise units, and those costs could be passed along to renters in the form of higher rent or fewer affordable options.

It's a familiar playbook, although there appears to be less planning this year than in the past

Despite, or perhaps because of, persistent efforts in Congress, the federal government ran out of money at midnight and is now officially out of action. The Senate adjourned late Tuesday night and the Office of Management andBudget issued a memo to executive branch agencies instructing them to "execute their plans for an orderly shutdown."

Leaving aside the he-said, she-said political jockeying, here is a look at the immediate effects on everyday consumers.

What will not be affected

• Social Security payments will continue as usual, including Supplemental Security Income
• Medicare, Medicaid, and disability insurance will be largely unaffected by a shutdown lasting less than three months
• VA Medical Centers, Outpatient Clinics, and Vet Centers will remain open and provide all services
• The majority of veteran benefits and military operations will continue to be funded
• Visa and passport operations are fee-funded and not normally impacted

What will be affected

• Around 900,000 federal workers willbe furloughed without pay, while another roughly 900,000 deemed essential would work without immediate pay
• Travelers could experience longer airport lines, muddled itineraries, and National Park closures, including the Grand Canyon
• New Social Security benefit verification and issuing of new cards pause during a shutdown, causing delays for new recipients
• Food assistance programs like WIC and SNAP could face disruptions
• Immigration court cases on the non-detained docket will be rescheduled to a later date

The shutdown was scheduled to begin at 12:01 AM and will continue until Congress passes new legislation. The most immediate impact will be on federal employees going without pay and reduced government services, while major benefit programs would largely continue operating.

DOGE, immigration efforts play a role

The effect on the economy may be greater than during previous shutdowns, thanks to the cost-cutting efforts of Elon Musk's DOGE program and the accelerated detention and deportation of undocumented workers, who make up a large percentage of the agricultural and hospitality workforces.

Some areas are being harder hit than others.The Washington, D.C., regions unemployment rate has climbed more than eight times faster than the national rate since January, according to a Brookings Institution analysis. Federal job losses have accelerated, while the share of residents with low credit scores and homes for sale has grown more quickly than elsewhere in the country. Private sector job growth has stalled, leaving the economy with little cushion against government cuts.

Facing the consequences

A federal government shutdown has wide-ranging effects, because funding for many agencies halts until Congress approves a budget. Heres a breakdown of the biggest impacts Americans typically feel:

1. Federal workers and contractors

• Furloughs: Hundreds of thousands of federal employees are sent home without pay until funding is restored.

• Essential workers still work: Military personnel, TSA agents, air traffic controllers, and federal prison guards must keep working, but their pay may be delayed.

• Contractors hit hardest: Private contractors for the government often dont receive back pay after a shutdown ends.

2. Government services and benefits

• Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid: These programs keep running, since theyre mandatory spending. However, customer service and processing (like new applications or appeals) can slow dramatically.

• Food assistance: Programs like SNAP (food stamps) and WIC (nutrition for women and children) face funding gaps if a shutdown drags on.

• Passports & visas: Processing slows or stops, creating travel delays.

• Tax refunds: The IRS continues some operations, but many services pause, potentially delaying refunds and audits.

3. Economy and markets

• GDP hit: Each week of shutdown reduces economic output, since government workers stop spending paychecks and contractors lose business.

• Stock market volatility: Markets may react negatively to the uncertainty, especially if the shutdown signals broader fiscal dysfunction.

• Consumer confidence: Public perception of government instability can dampen spending and hiring.

4. Public health and safety

• FDA & CDC delays: Food inspections, disease surveillance, and some drug approvals can be postponed.

• National parks: Parks may close or operate with reduced staff, leading to sanitation, safety, and visitor issues.

• Research disruptions: NIH grants and other federally funded science projects stall, slowing medical and academic research.

5. Long-term consequences

• Worker morale: Repeated shutdowns demoralize federal employees, making recruitment and retention harder.

• Credibility: Internationally, shutdowns raise questions about U.S. political stability and fiscal management.

• Catch-up costs: Restarting agencies after closures is inefficient and costly.

What to do during a government shutdown

Key points at a glance

• Essential programs keep running (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid), but services may slow.

• Federal workers and contractors may miss paychecks, though most employees get back pay when funding resumes.

• Everyday services like passports, food aid, and national parks may be delayed or disrupted.

Who is most affected

• Federal employees & contractors: Paychecks are paused, though employees usually receive back pay. Contractors often do not.

• Families on food assistance: SNAP and WIC programs can face funding shortfalls if the shutdown lasts.

• Travelers: Passport and visa applications may stall, affecting trip plans.

• Students & researchers: Federal grants and projects may freeze, delaying studies and research.

How to prepare and cope

1. Check benefit status: Confirm how your benefits (SNAP, Social Security, VA) will be processed. Agencies often post updates on their websites.

2. Plan ahead for travel: Apply for passports and visas early, before processing delays mount.

3. Stock up if on assistance: Families using WIC or SNAP should consider buying essentials early in case of disruptions.

4. Talk to lenders: If youre a federal worker, ask mortgage or credit card companies about hardship options many offer temporary relief during shutdowns.

5. Track agency announcements: Follow updates from the IRS, Social Security Administration, and other key offices for service changes.

Quick checklist

Verify your benefits or pay status
Adjust travel plans if passport/visa needs are pending
Stock up if relying on food aid
Contact lenders if paychecks may be delayed
Watch for agency updates online

Large clinical trial finds daily supplement lowered a key blood marker linked to heart health

• A large clinical trial found cocoa extract cut levels of hsCRP, an inflammation marker, by about 8.4% per year.

• Other markers showed mixed results, with a small IL-6 reduction in women but no broad changes.

• Findings may explain part of cocoas heart health benefits seen in earlier COSMOS results.

A new analysis from the COSMOS trial suggests that cocoa extract could help reduce age-related inflammation.

Researchers reported that adults who took a flavanol-rich cocoa supplement daily for two years had significantly lower levels of hsCRP, a well-known marker of systemic inflammation and cardiovascular risk.

Our interest in cocoa extract and inflammaging started on the basis of cocoa-related reductions in cardiovascular disease, researcher Howard Sesso, ScD, MPH, said in a news release.

We also appreciate the important overlap between healthy aging and cardiovascular health, where aging-related inflammation can harden arteries and lead to cardiovascular disease. Because of that, we wanted to see whether multi-year cocoa extract supplementation versus a placebo could modulate inflammaging and the data suggests it does.

The study

The findings come from a substudy within COSMOS, a nationwide clinical trial involving over 21,000 older adults. For this analysis, scientists focused on 598 participants who provided blood samples at the start, after one year, and after two years. Participants were randomly assigned to take either cocoa extract capsules or placebo, without knowing which they received.

Blood tests measured five key proteins:

• hsCRP (C-reactive protein): a marker linked to cardiovascular risk

• IL-6 and TNF-: pro-inflammatory proteins

• IL-10: an anti-inflammatory protein

• IFN-: an immune signaling protein
  

This design allowed researchers to track whether cocoa supplementation influenced inflammation compared to placebo over time.

The results

The standout result was a steady reduction in hsCRP: about 8.4% lower each year in the cocoa group versus placebo. Researchers say this may help explain the cardiovascular benefits tied to cocoa extract in earlier COSMOS reports.

Other results were less consistent:

• IL-6 dropped modestly in women but not men.

• TNF- and IL-10 showed little change.

• IFN- levels actually increased, a surprising finding the team says needs more study.
  

Overall, the data suggest cocoa extract could play a role in easing age-related inflammation, though its effects appear strongest for hsCRP. Researchers caution that supplements are not a substitute for healthy lifestyle habits, but the results add another piece to the puzzle of how cocoa may support heart health and aging.

This study calls for more attention to the advantage of plant-based foods for cardiovascular health, including cocoa products rich in flavanols, Sesso said. It reinforces the importance of a diverse, colorful, plant-based diet especially in the context of inflammation.

An expert shares tips on how consumers can be more budget-conscious this holiday

• Costumes and candy take the biggest bite out of Halloween budgets, followed by increasingly elaborate decorations.

• Shopping smart is keystacking early promotions, coupons, and cashback offers can save consumers 3040%.

• Timing mattersearly shopping ensures the best selection, while last-minute buys may bring discounts but limited options.

Halloween is right around the corner, and with candy prices expected to be higher this year, sticking to your budget can be difficult this holiday season.

To help consumers make the most of their money for Halloween, RetailMeNots Stephanie Carls shared her best tips for stretching your budget, the biggest costs, and planning resources.

Halloween has shifted into something people plan for, not just participate in, Carls told ConsumerAffairs. Whether its getting the house decorated early or coordinating group costumes with the family, shoppers are being more intentional.

The key is to treat Halloween like a mini holiday budget. Plan your spending and use the tools available to stretch every dollar. Halloween 2025 is less about cutting back and more about shopping smarter. With the right timing and a little strategy, you can still have a big celebration without the big price tag.

The biggest Halloween-related costs

So, whats going to hurt consumers wallets the most for Halloween? Carls says that costumes and candy are the two biggest culprits, followed by elaborate decor setups.

Halloween used to be one costume and a bag of candy, she said. Now its a full product, and shows up in the budget.

Costumes and candy usually gobble up the biggest chunk of change, she said. Costumes are a big deal for families, especially if you're buying for a few kids or going for popular characters.

And don't forget the candy! Those costs really add up, especially if you live in a trick-or-treating hot spot. Decor is also becoming a bigger investment every year. More people are going all in on front porch setups, yard inflatable, and animated props.

How can you save?

Knowing that prices are higher and the expectation for candy and decor is also expanding, Carls explained that there are still many ways for consumers to save for Halloween.

The smartest move is stacking your savings, she explained. Most big-box and online retailers launch Halloween promotions well in advance. When you combine those early sales with promo codes, and cash back offers, a 20% sale can quickly become 30% - 40% savings.

Buying in bulk is another great way to stretch your budget especially for candy and dcor if youre hosting or expecting a lot of trick-or-treaters. You dont have to cut back on Halloween. You just have to shop with a plan.

Pros and cons of shopping early

Carls explained that a recent survey from RetailMeNot found that 62% of shoppers want to get their Halloween shopping done well ahead of the holiday. But does this translate to better deals?

Carls explained that there are pros and cons to shopping early.

Shopping earlier often gives consumers the best selection of costumes, seasonal items (like family pajamas) and dcor, which can prevent last-minute splurges on pricier items, she said. Early-season promotions, like buy one get one 50% off costume deals, are also worth grabbing.

That said, if you wait until just before Halloween, many retailers slash prices to clear out inventory, but by then, selection is limited. The best approach is to shop early, and still stack savings by using coupons and cash back offers to maximize value. This way you get both the pick of the assortment and the biggest discount possible.