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Consumer Daily Reports

Rate-cut expectations remain high, though odds of deeper cuts have pulled back slightly

By Truman Lewis Consumer News: Wall Street eyes the Fed as PPI and jobless data emerge of ConsumerAffairs
August 14, 2025

  • Producer prices jumped in July but may not translate directly into the Feds preferred inflation gauge, easing fears of runaway inflation.

  • Jobless claims dipped, signaling resilience in the labor market despite tariff pressure.

  • Rate-cut expectations remain high, though odds of deeper cuts have pulled back slightly.


Wall Street was braced for hotter inflation data, and the latest producer price index (PPI) didnt disappoint. Prices for final demand surged 0.9% in July, far above expectations of a 0.2% increase, with annual wholesale inflation jumping to 3.3% from 2.4%. Yet markets are betting that the spike wont derail the Federal Reserves path toward interest rate cuts.

The S&P 500 fell modestly in early Thursday trading, one day after closing at a fresh record high. Among notable laggards was Deere (DE), which slumped on a tempered earnings outlook amid pressure from Trump administration tariffs.

PPI: Hotter than expected

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that goods prices rose 0.7% in July, the most since January, with food costs accounting for 40% of the increase. Distributor margins also jumped 2%, defying expectations that wholesalers might absorb tariff-related costs.

However, economists stressed that the PPIs surge may not flow directly into the Feds preferred inflation gauge the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index. Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics estimated Julys core PCE may rise just 0.26%, with market-based prices climbing less than 0.2%.

Photo

Labor market steady

The labor market showed continued strength. New jobless claims fell to 224,000, slightly below expectations, while continuing claims eased to 1.953 million. The dip signals that fewer Americans are relying on extended benefits as they search for new work.

Fed policy outlook

Even with hotter inflation, markets still expect the Fed to cut rates at its Sept. 17 meeting. According to CME FedWatch data, odds of a 25-basis-point cut remain near certainty, though chances of a larger 50-basis-point cut evaporated after the PPI release.

For the remainder of 2025, traders are split: markets now price in 48% odds of 75 basis points in total cuts, down from 57% earlier this week.

Why it matters

The combination of hotter wholesale inflation and steady jobless claims creates a mixed backdrop for policymakers. The Trump administration continues to push for aggressive rate cuts, but the Fed may tread more cautiously as it balances tariff-related cost pressures with the risk of economic slowdown.

For investors, that means more volatility ahead and every new data release, from CPI to PCE, will carry added weight in the countdown to Septembers Fed meeting.




Posted: 2025-08-14 14:10:51

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Consumer News: Congress fails to keep government running; shutdown takes effect

Wed, 01 Oct 2025 04:07:08 +0000

It's a familiar playbook, although there appears to be less planning this year than in the past

By James R. Hood of ConsumerAffairs
October 1, 2025

Despite, or perhaps because of, persistent efforts in Congress, the federal government ran out of money at midnight and is now officially out of action. The Senate adjourned late Tuesday night and the Office of Management andBudget issued a memo to executive branch agencies instructing them to "execute their plans for an orderly shutdown."

Leaving aside the he-said, she-said political jockeying, here is a look at the immediate effects on everyday consumers.

What will not be affected

  • Social Security payments will continue as usual, including Supplemental Security Income
  • Medicare, Medicaid, and disability insurance will be largely unaffected by a shutdown lasting less than three months
  • VA Medical Centers, Outpatient Clinics, and Vet Centers will remain open and provide all services
  • The majority of veteran benefits and military operations will continue to be funded
  • Visa and passport operations are fee-funded and not normally impacted

What will be affected

  • Around 900,000 federal workers willbe furloughed without pay, while another roughly 900,000 deemed essential would work without immediate pay
  • Travelers could experience longer airport lines, muddled itineraries, and National Park closures, including the Grand Canyon
  • New Social Security benefit verification and issuing of new cards pause during a shutdown, causing delays for new recipients
  • Food assistance programs like WIC and SNAP could face disruptions
  • Immigration court cases on the non-detained docket will be rescheduled to a later date

The shutdown was scheduled to begin at 12:01 AM and will continue until Congress passes new legislation. The most immediate impact will be on federal employees going without pay and reduced government services, while major benefit programs would largely continue operating.

DOGE, immigration efforts play a role

The effect on the economy may be greater than during previous shutdowns, thanks to the cost-cutting efforts of Elon Musk's DOGE program and the accelerated detention and deportation of undocumented workers, who make up a large percentage of the agricultural and hospitality workforces.

Some areas are being harder hit than others.The Washington, D.C., regions unemployment rate has climbed more than eight times faster than the national rate since January, according to a Brookings Institution analysis. Federal job losses have accelerated, while the share of residents with low credit scores and homes for sale has grown more quickly than elsewhere in the country. Private sector job growth has stalled, leaving the economy with little cushion against government cuts.

Facing the consequences

A federal government shutdown has wide-ranging effects, because funding for many agencies halts until Congress approves a budget. Heres a breakdown of the biggest impacts Americans typically feel:

1. Federal workers and contractors

  • Furloughs: Hundreds of thousands of federal employees are sent home without pay until funding is restored.

  • Essential workers still work: Military personnel, TSA agents, air traffic controllers, and federal prison guards must keep working, but their pay may be delayed.

  • Contractors hit hardest: Private contractors for the government often dont receive back pay after a shutdown ends.

2. Government services and benefits

  • Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid: These programs keep running, since theyre mandatory spending. However, customer service and processing (like new applications or appeals) can slow dramatically.

  • Food assistance: Programs like SNAP (food stamps) and WIC (nutrition for women and children) face funding gaps if a shutdown drags on.

  • Passports & visas: Processing slows or stops, creating travel delays.

  • Tax refunds: The IRS continues some operations, but many services pause, potentially delaying refunds and audits.

3. Economy and markets

  • GDP hit: Each week of shutdown reduces economic output, since government workers stop spending paychecks and contractors lose business.

  • Stock market volatility: Markets may react negatively to the uncertainty, especially if the shutdown signals broader fiscal dysfunction.

  • Consumer confidence: Public perception of government instability can dampen spending and hiring.

4. Public health and safety

  • FDA & CDC delays: Food inspections, disease surveillance, and some drug approvals can be postponed.

  • National parks: Parks may close or operate with reduced staff, leading to sanitation, safety, and visitor issues.

  • Research disruptions: NIH grants and other federally funded science projects stall, slowing medical and academic research.

5. Long-term consequences

  • Worker morale: Repeated shutdowns demoralize federal employees, making recruitment and retention harder.

  • Credibility: Internationally, shutdowns raise questions about U.S. political stability and fiscal management.

  • Catch-up costs: Restarting agencies after closures is inefficient and costly.


What to do during a government shutdown

Key points at a glance

  • Essential programs keep running (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid), but services may slow.

  • Federal workers and contractors may miss paychecks, though most employees get back pay when funding resumes.

  • Everyday services like passports, food aid, and national parks may be delayed or disrupted.


Who is most affected

  • Federal employees & contractors: Paychecks are paused, though employees usually receive back pay. Contractors often do not.

  • Families on food assistance: SNAP and WIC programs can face funding shortfalls if the shutdown lasts.

  • Travelers: Passport and visa applications may stall, affecting trip plans.

  • Students & researchers: Federal grants and projects may freeze, delaying studies and research.


How to prepare and cope

  1. Check benefit status: Confirm how your benefits (SNAP, Social Security, VA) will be processed. Agencies often post updates on their websites.

  2. Plan ahead for travel: Apply for passports and visas early, before processing delays mount.

  3. Stock up if on assistance: Families using WIC or SNAP should consider buying essentials early in case of disruptions.

  4. Talk to lenders: If youre a federal worker, ask mortgage or credit card companies about hardship options many offer temporary relief during shutdowns.

  5. Track agency announcements: Follow updates from the IRS, Social Security Administration, and other key offices for service changes.


Quick checklist

Verify your benefits or pay status
Adjust travel plans if passport/visa needs are pending
Stock up if relying on food aid
Contact lenders if paychecks may be delayed
Watch for agency updates online



Read More ...


Consumer News: Cocoa extract shows promise against age-related inflammation

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 19:07:10 +0000

Large clinical trial finds daily supplement lowered a key blood marker linked to heart health

By Kristen Dalli of ConsumerAffairs
September 30, 2025
  • A large clinical trial found cocoa extract cut levels of hsCRP, an inflammation marker, by about 8.4% per year.

  • Other markers showed mixed results, with a small IL-6 reduction in women but no broad changes.

  • Findings may explain part of cocoas heart health benefits seen in earlier COSMOS results.


A new analysis from the COSMOS trial suggests that cocoa extract could help reduce age-related inflammation.

Researchers reported that adults who took a flavanol-rich cocoa supplement daily for two years had significantly lower levels of hsCRP, a well-known marker of systemic inflammation and cardiovascular risk.

Our interest in cocoa extract and inflammaging started on the basis of cocoa-related reductions in cardiovascular disease, researcher Howard Sesso, ScD, MPH, said in a news release.

We also appreciate the important overlap between healthy aging and cardiovascular health, where aging-related inflammation can harden arteries and lead to cardiovascular disease. Because of that, we wanted to see whether multi-year cocoa extract supplementation versus a placebo could modulate inflammaging and the data suggests it does.

The study

The findings come from a substudy within COSMOS, a nationwide clinical trial involving over 21,000 older adults. For this analysis, scientists focused on 598 participants who provided blood samples at the start, after one year, and after two years. Participants were randomly assigned to take either cocoa extract capsules or placebo, without knowing which they received.

Blood tests measured five key proteins:

  • hsCRP (C-reactive protein): a marker linked to cardiovascular risk

  • IL-6 and TNF-: pro-inflammatory proteins

  • IL-10: an anti-inflammatory protein

  • IFN-: an immune signaling protein

This design allowed researchers to track whether cocoa supplementation influenced inflammation compared to placebo over time.

The results

The standout result was a steady reduction in hsCRP: about 8.4% lower each year in the cocoa group versus placebo. Researchers say this may help explain the cardiovascular benefits tied to cocoa extract in earlier COSMOS reports.

Other results were less consistent:

  • IL-6 dropped modestly in women but not men.

  • TNF- and IL-10 showed little change.

  • IFN- levels actually increased, a surprising finding the team says needs more study.

Overall, the data suggest cocoa extract could play a role in easing age-related inflammation, though its effects appear strongest for hsCRP. Researchers caution that supplements are not a substitute for healthy lifestyle habits, but the results add another piece to the puzzle of how cocoa may support heart health and aging.

This study calls for more attention to the advantage of plant-based foods for cardiovascular health, including cocoa products rich in flavanols, Sesso said. It reinforces the importance of a diverse, colorful, plant-based diet especially in the context of inflammation.


Read More ...


Consumer News: How to stretch your budget this Halloween

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 19:07:09 +0000

An expert shares tips on how consumers can be more budget-conscious this holiday

By Kristen Dalli of ConsumerAffairs
September 30, 2025

  • Costumes and candy take the biggest bite out of Halloween budgets, followed by increasingly elaborate decorations.

  • Shopping smart is keystacking early promotions, coupons, and cashback offers can save consumers 3040%.

  • Timing mattersearly shopping ensures the best selection, while last-minute buys may bring discounts but limited options.


Halloween is right around the corner, and with candy prices expected to be higher this year, sticking to your budget can be difficult this holiday season.

To help consumers make the most of their money for Halloween, RetailMeNots Stephanie Carls shared her best tips for stretching your budget, the biggest costs, and planning resources.

Halloween has shifted into something people plan for, not just participate in, Carls told ConsumerAffairs. Whether its getting the house decorated early or coordinating group costumes with the family, shoppers are being more intentional.

The key is to treat Halloween like a mini holiday budget. Plan your spending and use the tools available to stretch every dollar. Halloween 2025 is less about cutting back and more about shopping smarter. With the right timing and a little strategy, you can still have a big celebration without the big price tag.

The biggest Halloween-related costs

So, whats going to hurt consumers wallets the most for Halloween? Carls says that costumes and candy are the two biggest culprits, followed by elaborate decor setups.

Halloween used to be one costume and a bag of candy, she said. Now its a full product, and shows up in the budget.

Costumes and candy usually gobble up the biggest chunk of change, she said. Costumes are a big deal for families, especially if you're buying for a few kids or going for popular characters.

And don't forget the candy! Those costs really add up, especially if you live in a trick-or-treating hot spot. Decor is also becoming a bigger investment every year. More people are going all in on front porch setups, yard inflatable, and animated props.

How can you save?

Knowing that prices are higher and the expectation for candy and decor is also expanding, Carls explained that there are still many ways for consumers to save for Halloween.

The smartest move is stacking your savings, she explained. Most big-box and online retailers launch Halloween promotions well in advance. When you combine those early sales with promo codes, and cash back offers, a 20% sale can quickly become 30% - 40% savings.

Buying in bulk is another great way to stretch your budget especially for candy and dcor if youre hosting or expecting a lot of trick-or-treaters. You dont have to cut back on Halloween. You just have to shop with a plan.

Pros and cons of shopping early

Carls explained that a recent survey from RetailMeNot found that 62% of shoppers want to get their Halloween shopping done well ahead of the holiday. But does this translate to better deals?

Carls explained that there are pros and cons to shopping early.

Shopping earlier often gives consumers the best selection of costumes, seasonal items (like family pajamas) and dcor, which can prevent last-minute splurges on pricier items, she said. Early-season promotions, like buy one get one 50% off costume deals, are also worth grabbing.

That said, if you wait until just before Halloween, many retailers slash prices to clear out inventory, but by then, selection is limited. The best approach is to shop early, and still stack savings by using coupons and cash back offers to maximize value. This way you get both the pick of the assortment and the biggest discount possible.


Read More ...


Consumer News: Ford and GM reportedly considering a plan to extend the EV tax credit

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 16:07:11 +0000

The $7,500 credit on electric vehicles expires today

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs
September 30, 2025
  • Reports suggest Ford and GM are preparing arrangements through their financing arms to effectively extend the $7,500 federal EV tax credit beyond its scheduled September 30, 2025 cutoff

  • Under one plan, the automakers would purchase electric vehicles in dealer inventories (making qualifying down payments) so that dealers can continue offering leases with the credit built in

  • The move is being framed as a bridge measure to soften a steep drop in EV demand after the credits lapse and preserve momentum in a fragile market


Ford Motor Company and General Motors are reportedly coordinating a financial strategy to maintain the U.S. federal electric vehicle (EV) tax credit, at least in practice, despite its official expiration at the end of today.

Reuters cites people familiar with the matter and internal documents reviewed by industry press who say both automakers are leveraging their captive financing arms to continue making down payments on EVs held in dealer inventory.

Under the plan, those purchases would qualify for the $7,500 tax credit, enabling dealers to roll the subsidy into lease offers to consumers as though the credit were still active.

According to the report, Fords program would extend through December 31, while GM has confirmed coordination with its dealers to maintain incentive-backed leases beyond the September 30 deadline.

How it might work

  • The automakers financing arm buys the EV from the dealership via a down payment or similar mechanism, making the purchase eligible for the tax credit.

  • The dealership then leases the same vehicle to the end customer, embedding the $7,500 benefit in the lease structure.

  • The arrangement hinges on prior consultation with the Internal Revenue Service; sources say both firms have held talks with the IRS to validate the maneuver.

Automotive analysts describe the strategy as a clever workaround less a legislative extension and more a transactional extension intended to shield EV demand from collapsing sharply when the tax credit vanishes.

Why this matters and the risks

The $7,500 tax credit has been a pillar of the U.S. EV market, helping narrow the cost gap between electric and internal combustion vehicles. Its removal is widely expected to dampen consumer demand sharply.

Ford and GM are reportedly racing to blunt that shock. In recent months, both companies have lobbied for more gradual phase-outs of the subsidy and preservation of the leasing loophole that allows automakers finance arms to claim the credit.

Yet the strategy is not without risk. Legal and regulatory scrutiny could challenge whether the transactions genuinely qualify under tax law. If the IRS or Congress disputes the arrangement, the financial risk could be substantial for the automakers and their dealers.


Read More ...


Consumer News: Tainted meals sold at Walmart and Trader Joe’s linked to four deaths

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 16:07:11 +0000

The ready-to-eat meals may be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes

By Mark Huffman of ConsumerAffairs
September 30, 2025
  • USDA issues public health alert for select ready-to-eat pasta meals over potential Listeria monocytogenes contamination.

  • Walmart Marketside and Trader Joes items named; multiple best if used by dates span Sept. 20Oct. 1, 2025.

  • Positive test on pre-cooked pasta matches the outbreak strain tied to chicken fettuccine alfredo; consumers urged not to eat affected products.


The U.S. Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) issued a public health alert for several ready-to-eat pasta meals that may be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes (Lm). The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has linked the meals of at least 19 hospitalizations and four deaths.

The federal warnings cover products sold at Walmart and Trader Joes and follow new test results linking contaminated pasta to the ongoing listeria outbreak associated with chicken fettuccine alfredo meals.

FSIS said one of the producing companies collected samples of the FDA-regulated, pre-cooked pasta used in its meals. The linguine tested positive for listeria, and further analysis showed it is genetically related to the current outbreak strain.

FSIS previously announced a recall connected to this outbreak in June and continues working with FDA, CDC, and state health partners as the investigation evolves. The agency expects additional updates and urged consumers to check back frequently for new information.

Products under the alert:

  • Sold at Walmart: MARKETSIDE LINGUINE WITH BEEF MEATBALLS & MARINARA SAUCE, 12-oz clear plastic trays, best if used by SEP 22, 2025; SEP 24, 2025; SEP 25, 2025; SEP 29, 2025; SEP 30, 2025; OCT 01, 2025. The label shows EST. 50784 or EST. 47718 inside the USDA mark of inspection.

  • Sold at Trader Joes: TRADER JOES CAJUN STYLE BLACKENED CHICKEN BREAST FETTUCINE ALFREDO, 16-oz plastic trays, best if used by 9/20/2025, 9/24/2025, or 9/27/2025, with P-45288 inside the USDA mark of inspection.

What to do

FSIS is concerned that affected items may still be in home refrigerators or freezers. Shoppers who purchased these products should not consume them. Throw them away or return to the store for a refund.

Questions and contacts:

  • Product inquiries: Nates Fine Foods, 916-677-7303 (MonFri, 9 a.m.4 p.m. PT).

  • Food safety help: USDA Meat & Poultry Hotline at 888-MPHotline (888-674-6854) or email MPHotline@usda.gov.

  • Report a problem with meat, poultry, or egg products: Electronic Consumer Complaint Monitoring System (available 24/7) at foodcomplaint.fsis.usda.gov/eCCF/.

FSIS said it will update the public health alert as new information becomes available.


Read More ...


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