New Stanford-led study finds rising smoke exposure may drive a surge in premature deaths

• Researchers estimate that between 20112020, wildfire smoke exposure contributed to about 41,380 extra deaths per year across the U.S.

• Under a business-as-usual warming scenario, annual excess deaths from smoke could rise by more than 70%, to about 71,420 lives lost per year by 2050.

• Even in a scenario where emissions are sharply reduced, smokerelated mortality would still remain high, and the economic damages alone from these deaths may exceed costs from all other climatedriven harms.

Its easy to think of wildfire smoke as nothing more than an irritant haze in the sky, the smell in your lungs. But a new study suggests it's doing something much more serious: quietly raising the U.S. death toll.

Researchers from Stanford University now estimate that, nationwide, exposure to smoke especially from wildfires has already been linked to tens of thousands of extra deaths annually. And with climate change intensifying fires, the problem is likely to get worse.

While previous research has explored how small particles in the air harm health, the unique mix of chemicals in wildfire smoke and its long reach, sometimes carried across states make this a special concern.

Theres a broad understanding that wildfire activity and wildfire smoke exposure are changing quickly. This is a lived experience, unfortunately, for folks on the West Coast over the last decade and folks on the East Coast in the last few years, senior study author Marshall Burke, said in a news release.

Our paper puts some numbers on what that change in exposure means for health outcomes, both now and in the future as the climate warms.

The study

To pin down how many deaths are tied to wildfire smoke (and what might happen in the future), the team combined multiple strands of data and statistical modeling. Heres how they approached it:

1. Historical death records & smoke measurements. The scientists gathered county-level data on all recorded deaths in the U.S. from 2006 to 2019. They also tracked ground-level smoke emissions, wind patterns, and how particulate matter moves through the air.

2. Machine learning & statistical links. They used machine learning models (alongside more traditional statistical methods) to link changes in smoke concentration with mortality. In other words: if smoke increased in a place, how did death rates respond?

3. Future projections under climate scenarios. Using global climate models, they projected how fire activity and smoke levels might change under different warming pathways. Then, they extended their mortality-smoke relationship forward into those futures, up through 2050.
   

They also allowed for the fact that health impacts of smoke might persist meaning that exposure in one year could lead to excess deaths up to three years later.

The results

Heres a look at the findings:

• In the 20112020 period, wildfire smoke was estimated to cause 41,380 excess deaths per year across the U.S.

• Under a high-warming business-as-usual scenario, that number could jump to 71,420 excess deaths annually by 2050 a ~73% increase.

• Over the next three decades (20262055), the cumulative excess death toll could reach 1.9 million.

• When converted into economic terms, the cost from smoke-driven deaths under warming may outstrip the projected costs from all other climate-related damages combined (storms, heat, agriculture, etc.).

• Perhaps surprisingly, even with aggressive emissions reductions, the researchers expect smoke-related mortality to stay high likely still exceeding 60,000 deaths per year by 2050.
  

On a state-by-state level, the biggest projected increases (beyond baseline) are in California ( 5,060 additional deaths), New York ( 1,810), Washington ( 1,730), Texas ( 1,700), and Pennsylvania ( 1,600).

Our understanding of who is vulnerable to this exposure is much broader than we thought, Burke said. Its pregnant people, its kids in schools, its anyone with asthma, its people with cancer. We look at one specific health outcome in this study mortality and unfortunately find a shared burden of exposure for individuals across the U.S.

Forty of the biggest toys of the season start at just $5

• Target has officially released its Toy Toys List ahead of the 2025 holiday season.

• The retailer is focused on affordability, trendy favorites, and classic brands this holiday season.

• Target has thousands of toys available for $20 or less.

Its never too early to start planning for the holidays!

Target has officially announced its 2025 Bullseyes Top Toys List, highlighting affordability, classics, and trendy favorites ahead of the holiday season.

"Our Bullseye's Top Toys List is a big part of the holiday experience for millions of families, and this year's list has something for everyone," Cassandra Jones, senior vice president of merchandising for Fun101, Target, said in a news release.

"As curators of fun, we've handpicked the hottest new toys from the top brands including hundreds of exclusives and thousands priced under $20 to bring the magic of play to life. We're making it easy for every family to find something special to gift at a great price this season."

Find your favorites

Target has divided its Top Toys List into different categories to make shopping easier for consumers. These include: Game On, Build It, Imagine, Learn & Adventure, Figure of Fun, Future Foodies, FAO Schwarz Finds, Ready, Set, Roll, and Friends & Heroes.

Heres a look at what shoppers can expect to find on this years list:

• Nintendo Switch 2 Console + Mario Kart World Bundle: $499.99

• Barbie Hearth & Hand Townhouse Playset: $149.99

• Target Toy Shopping Cart: $19.99

• Bluey Interactive Siblings Plush - 2pk: $49.99

• PAW Patrol Fire Rescue Deluxe FireTruck Toy Vehicle: $59.99

• Gabbys Dollhouse: The Movie Interactive Dollhouse: $99.99

• LEGO 3 in 1 Record Player with Flowers: $25.49

• Razor A 2 Wheel Kick Scooter: $39.49

• Ms. Rachel Emotions Learning Doll Stuffed Animal: $29.99

• NERF Cobalt Fury Toy Blaster: $17.99

• Kinetic Sand Sanyland Folding Sandbox: $34.99

• Play-Doh Super Slice Cake Playset: $29.99

Target is also touting thousands of toys available for $20 or less, and a selection of toys available for $5.

See the toys in stores

In addition, Target will be hosting in-store demos from November 8 through December 21 to highlight the top toys of the holiday season.These free demonstrations will be held every weekend, with the goal of helping shoppers make their holiday shopping a bit easier.

All of Targets holiday buys are available online, in stores, and on the Target mobile app.

The FTC charged that Amazon made it too hard to cancel

• Settlement could mean $51 refunds for some customers

• FTC says Amazon misled millions into unwanted Prime memberships

• Payout process begins within 90 days

What the case was about

Amazon has agreed to pay $2.5 billion to settle claims that it tricked customers into signing up for Prime and then made it difficult to cancel. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) said tens of millions of people were affected.

The deal, announced Thursday, came just days into a jury trial in Seattle. It stems from a 2023 lawsuit that challenged how Amazon pitched its membership program to shoppers.

Consumer and privacy groups applauded the deal.Amazons long history of using manipulative design features forcing consumers to give up more money and personal data than they intend has, we hope, finally come to an end, said Sara Geoghegan, Senior Counsel at EPIC, a privacy rights group. Todays settlement underscores what consumers have long known: Big Techs attempt to take more money out of our pockets and to collect more of our personal information by trapping us in subscriptions is illegal and wrong.

Whats in the settlement

The settlement includes $1 billion in penalties and $1.5 billion in payouts to customers. Refunds are expected to average $51 per person. The FTC called it one of the largest settlements in its history.

Amazon, which has more than 200 million Prime members in the U.S., did not admit or deny wrongdoing. The company did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

How to know if you qualify

Within 90 days, Amazon will automatically issue $51 to customers who meet the FTCs criteria. That group includes people who enrolled in Prime but barely used its benefits, such as streaming video.

Other customers may also qualify. Amazon will notify people who can submit a claim if they believe they were signed up by mistake or discouraged from canceling.

Why it matters to shoppers

Prime is a massive business for Amazon, generating more than $44 billion in subscription revenue last year. Prime members typically shop more often and spend more than nonmembers.

The FTCs action shows regulators are putting a spotlight on practices that make it harder for consumers to opt out of subscriptions.

What to do next

If you think you might qualify for a refund:

1. Watch your inbox: Amazon will contact eligible customers within 90 days.

2. Check your Prime use: If you enrolled but rarely used benefits, you may be in the automatic payout group.

3. File a claim if needed: If you believe you were signed up by mistake or discouraged from canceling, look for Amazons instructions to submit a claim.

4. Stay alert for : Refunds will only come through Amazon or FTC-approved channels, not random emails or texts.

The FTC charged that Amazon made it too hard to cancel

• Settlement could mean $51 refunds for some customers

• FTC says Amazon misled millions into unwanted Prime memberships

• Payout process begins within 90 days

What the case was about

Amazon has agreed to pay $2.5 billion to settle claims that it tricked customers into signing up for Prime and then made it difficult to cancel. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) said tens of millions of people were affected.

The deal, announced Thursday, came just days into a jury trial in Seattle. It stems from a 2023 lawsuit that challenged how Amazon pitched its membership program to shoppers.

Whats in the settlement

The settlement includes $1 billion in penalties and $1.5 billion in payouts to customers. Refunds are expected to average $51 per person. The FTC called it one of the largest settlements in its history.

Amazon, which has more than 200 million Prime members in the U.S., did not admit or deny wrongdoing. The company did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

How to know if you qualify

Within 90 days, Amazon will automatically issue $51 to customers who meet the FTCs criteria. That group includes people who enrolled in Prime but barely used its benefits, such as streaming video.

Other customers may also qualify. Amazon will notify people who can submit a claim if they believe they were signed up by mistake or discouraged from canceling.

Why it matters to shoppers

Prime is a massive business for Amazon, generating more than $44 billion in subscription revenue last year. Prime members typically shop more often and spend more than nonmembers.

The FTCs action shows regulators are putting a spotlight on practices that make it harder for consumers to opt out of subscriptions.

What to do next

If you think you might qualify for a refund:

1. Watch your inbox: Amazon will contact eligible customers within 90 days.

2. Check your Prime use: If you enrolled but rarely used benefits, you may be in the automatic payout group.

3. File a claim if needed: If you believe you were signed up by mistake or discouraged from canceling, look for Amazons instructions to submit a claim.

4. Stay alert for : Refunds will only come through Amazon or FTC-approved channels, not random emails or texts.