Social Security recipients hoping to learn their 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) this month may have to wait
Social Security checks will continue despite the shutdown
But the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement may be delayed
Retirees are urged to budget conservatively until the official figure is released
Normally, the Social Security Administration (SSA) announces the annual COLA in mid-October. But the ongoing federal government shutdown has likely pushed that timetable back. While monthly benefits themselves will continue, the announcement of the adjustment may be suspended until inflation data is available.
Why the COLA matters
The COLA affects more than 71 million Americans retirees, people with disabilities, and surviving family members. It determines how much monthly Social Security checks increase to offset inflation.
In 2025, the average retired worker received about $1,940 per month. Even a modest percentage change can mean the difference between affording rent, groceries, or prescription drugs.
Recent years have seen unusually large COLAs due to higher-than-normal inflation. But without clarity on the 2026 figure, households on fixed incomes face uncertainty about their budgets for the new year.
The role of inflation data
Each years COLA is based on inflation data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). If BLS staff are furloughed, the release of Septembers CPI report the final piece needed to calculate the adjustment could be delayed.
That delay would ripple through to SSA, preventing an on-time COLA announcement. The BLS has already missed its regular jobs report release because of the shutdown, underscoring the disruption.
What is still happening during the shutdown
Despite the uncertainty, Social Security checks are not at risk. Employees responsible for issuing payments are considered essential and will continue working.
Other SSA functions, however, could slow dramatically. Services like answering phones, processing claims, or verifying identities for new applicants may face significant backlogs.
Budgeting for uncertainty
Financial planners advise retirees to prepare for possible delays by budgeting conservatively. That means tracking inflation trends, holding off on large financial decisions, and maintaining flexibility until the official COLA figure is announced.
Uncertainty can influence choices such as whether to downsize housing, adjust Medicare coverage, or withdraw funds from retirement accounts. Experts warn that planning without knowing the adjustment could leave households exposed to risk.
Political backdrop
The COLA announcement is also shaping up as a political flashpoint. With Social Securitys long-term solvency already under debate, lawmakers opposed to shutdowns argue retirees shouldnt be caught in the crossfire of budget standoffs.
The latest estimate pegs the 2026 COLA at about 2.7%. Unless Septembers inflation data shows an unexpected shift, that number may hold. But until the government fully reopens and the BLS resumes publishing, millions of retirees will remain in limbo.
Prevention tips: how retirees can prepare during the delay
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Budget conservatively: Assume a modest increase until the official COLA figure is announced.
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Track inflation trends: Keep an eye on CPI updates and financial news for clues about the likely adjustment.
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Delay big decisions: Hold off on housing moves, major purchases, or Medicare plan changes until the COLA is finalized.
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Build flexibility: Keep a cushion in your budget to adjust when the new benefit amount is announced.
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Avoid : Be wary of anyone claiming they can provide early access to COLA information the SSA is the only official source.
What to do if youre affected by a delayed COLA announcement
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Check the SSA website regularly: Thats where the official COLA announcement will appear.
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Contact financial institutions cautiously: Banks and retirement planners may have estimates, but only SSA numbers are official.
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Dont panic about payments: Your monthly Social Security check will arrive on schedule regardless of the shutdown.
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Use estimated COLA figures for planning: Analysts currently peg the 2026 COLA at about 2.7%. While not guaranteed, it can be a placeholder for preliminary budgeting.
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Stay informed through trusted news sources: Government shutdown updates will signal when BLS data and SSA announcements may resume.
Posted: 2025-10-06 12:59:01