The monthly Conference Board index hits its lowest point since April
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U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply in November, dropping to its lowest level since April.
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Expectations about future business, labor market, and income conditions all deteriorated.
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The forward-looking Expectations Index has now sat below recession-signaling territory for 10 straight months.
On the eve of Thanksgiving, consumers arent in a very optimistic mood. The Conference Boards monthly Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.8 points to 88.7, its weakest reading since April, down from 95.5 in October.
The decline was broad-based. The Present Situation Index, which reflects consumers views of current business and labor market conditions, slipped 4.3 points to 126.9. The Expectations Index, which captures consumers six-month outlook, fell more sharply, dropping 8.6 points to 63.2. The Expectations Index has now remained below 80 for ten consecutive months, a level historically associated with heightened recession risk.
Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months, said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak.
Peterson noted that consumers grew more cautious about both current conditions and the economic road ahead, with pessimism rising across business expectations, the labor market outlook, and anticipated household income.
Labor market sentiment continues to fall
Consumers perceptions of the labor market weakened modestly. The share of respondents calling jobs plentiful dipped to 27.6% from 28.6%, while those saying jobs were hard to get also edged down to 17.9% from 18.3%. The Conference Boards labor market differentiala key gauge of sentimentcontinued its year-long slide after a brief October pause.
Expectations six months ahead also deteriorated. Only 14.6% of consumers now expect more jobs to be available, down from 15.8%, while 27.5% anticipate fewer jobs.
Optimism about future business conditions faded further in November. Just 15.9% of respondents expect business conditions to improve, while 27.7% expect them to worsena notable jump from October.
Income expectations also lost momentum. After six months of relatively strong readings, the share of consumers expecting their incomes to rise fell to 15.3%, while those anticipating a decline increased to 13.8%.
Peterson emphasized that consumers write-in responses showed persistent anxiety over inflation, prices, tariffs, politics, and the federal government shutdown. Mentions of the labor market eased but remained a prominent concern. Overall sentiment in Novembers comments was slightly more negative than in October.
Younger consumers more optimistic
Confidence varied sharply across demographic groups:
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Under 35: Confidence continued improving on a six-month moving average basis.
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Age 35+: Sentiment deteriorated, with consumers 55+ remaining the most pessimistic this year.
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By income: Nearly all income brackets saw declining confidence, except consumers earning under $15,000though this group remains the least optimistic overall.
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By political affiliation: Confidence slipped across the board, with the steepest declines among independent voters.
Consumers views of their financial situations took a turn for the worse. Current financial assessments plunged to near levels last seen in August 2024, when market turbulence briefly rattled recession fears.
Posted: 2025-11-26 12:47:38
