While prices decline in Sunbelt cities, theyre rising in colder climates
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Realtor.coms 2026 Housing Markets ranking shows a sharp regional shift, with the Northeast and Midwest dominating the top spots after years of Southern and Western leadership.
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Hartford, Conn., Rochester, N.Y., and Worcester, Mass., lead the forecast as refuge markets drawing buyers seeking affordability, stability, and more space for the price.
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Tight inventory, limited new construction, and financially strong buyers are expected to fuel some of the nations fastest price and sales growth next year.
Realtor.com has released its ranking of the Top Housing Markets for 2026, and it reveals a dramatic geographic reshuffling in the U.S. real estate landscape. After several years in which fast-growing Southern and Western metros dominated growth lists, the markets projected to outperform in 2026 are concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest, led by Hartford, Conn.; Rochester, N.Y.; and Worcester, Mass.
Homeowners in this markets can expect to see the values of their homes increase next year. On the flip side, buyers will face higher prices.
The shift reflects a national market cooling from pandemic-era extremes, paired with buyer demand increasingly centered on value, affordability, and stability rather than rapid growth or warm-weather appeal.
Buyers seek out refuge markets
With price growth expected to ease nationally and modest mortgage rate relief on the horizon, many home shoppers are redirecting their searches toward markets that offer more for their money. Realtor.com labels these metros refuge markets cities where home prices remain accessible relative to nearby major hubs such as New York, Boston, and Washington, D.C.
In Q3 2025, 40% of listing views in the top 10 markets came from out-of-metro shoppers, up sharply from 31% before mortgage rates began rising in 2022. These destinations are especially attractive to first-time buyers and relocating households priced out of coastal or high-growth regions.
Across the top 10 markets, the median list price is $384,000, well below the national median of $415,000.
Strong demand pushes prices higher
Even with relatively low price points, buyers face strong competition. Many top markets are grappling with severe inventory shortages, including Hartford, Worcester, and New Haven, each still 60% below pre-pandemic inventory levels. Limited new construction exacerbates the supply crunch: nine of the top 10 metros have fewer new-home listings than the national average.
When new construction does appear, its costly. The premium on new homes in these metros is at least double the national average of 10.2%.
The combination of scarcity and steady demand is pushing prices higher at a pace that outstrips national trends. While U.S. list prices have been essentially flat since 2022, prices in these refuge metros are up 16.3% on average, led by Toledo, Ohios 33.4% surge.
One advantage of these rising markets: lower mortgage lock-in pressure. In many of the top metros, prospective buyers face a smaller jump in monthly payments compared with current homeowners than the national norm. In Rochester, Toledo, and Pittsburgh, buyers would spend 32.5% to 56.4% morefar below the 73.2% national averagewhen replacing an existing mortgage, making it easier for owners to move and freeing up listings.
Older, smaller houses
Top metros tend to have older residents and older homes, conditions that contribute to stablebut tighthousing supply. Median homeowner ages in the top markets often fall in the mid-50s, far above the U.S. median of 40. Pittsburgh leads at age 57.
Housing stock is similarly mature: eight of the top 10 metros have median home build years before 1965, compared with the national median of 1981. Homes also tend to be smaller, with several marketsespecially Toledo and Pittsburghwell below the national median of 1,834 square feet.
These characteristics limit turnover and restrict inventory, reinforcing upward pressure on prices even as affordability draws in new buyers.
Posted: 2025-12-11 12:54:49















