Worries that tariffs would fuel higher prices failed to materialize

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Consumer prices rose 0.2% in July, with annual inflation holding steady at 2.7%
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Shelter costs were the biggest driver of the increase, while energy prices fell
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Food prices were unchanged overall, as grocery costs dipped but restaurant prices climbed
Despite concerns that tariffs would drive inflation higher, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the July Consumer Price Index was mostly in line with expectations. Month-over-month prices were about the same as in June.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPIU) rose 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis. That follows a 0.3% increase in June. Over the last 12 months, the index rose 2.7%, matching Junes annual rate.
Housing costs, not imports subject to tariffs, remained the main contributor to Julys uptick. The shelter index increased 0.2%, reflecting higher rents and owners equivalent rent, even as some travelrelated lodging costs fell.
Food prices were flat overall for the month. Grocery, or food at home, prices slipped 0.1%, led by declines in beverages, cereals, and baked goods, though dairy and meat costs edged higher.
Food Categories with the largest increases
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Dairy and related products: This category saw the highest increase in July, rising by 0.7%. Within this, the price of milk notably increased by 1.9%.
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Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs: This group increased by 0.2%. While meats (especially beef) saw gains (beef up 1.5%), eggs actually fell 3.9%. The overall mild positive was due to some subcategories rising strongly, offset by sharp drops in others.
Food categories with the smallest price changes
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Fruits and vegetables: Flat in July, with no overall change (0.0%) reported.
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Other food at home: Decreased by 0.5% over the month.
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Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials: Also saw a decrease of 0.5% in July.
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Cereals and bakery products: Fell by 0.2% for the month.
In contrast, food away from home mostly restaurant meals rose 0.3%, with fullservice dining costs climbing at a faster pace than limitedservice meals.
Cheaper energy
Energy prices provided relief to consumers, dropping 1.1% in July, driven by a 2.2% decline in gasoline. Natural gas prices also retreated, while electricity costs remained nearly unchanged for the month. Over the year, the gasoline index fell sharply, down 9.5%, offsetting gains in utility services such as electricity and natural gas.
Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, increased 0.3% in July after a 0.2% rise in June. Notable monthly increases came in medical care, airline fares, recreation, and used vehicles. On a yearoveryear basis, core prices rose 3.1%.
Posted: 2025-08-12 13:14:15