Prices are the pump are already lower than they were last year

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Global oil prices are projected to decline sharply, with Brent crude expected to average $59/bbl in late 2025 and $50/bbl in early 2026, driven by strong inventory builds.
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U.S. gasoline prices are forecast to fall, averaging $3.10/gal in 2025 and dropping to $2.90/gal in 2026, with most regions paying below $3/gal.
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Gasoline expenditures as a share of disposable income will reach their lowest level since at least 2005 (excluding 2020), easing financial pressure on U.S. households.
As the price of nearly everything has seemed to rise, gasoline prices have been a bright spot for consumers. Gas costs less than it did a year ago, and the U.S. The Energy Information Administration expects that trend to continue, with motorists seeing relief at the pump over the next 18 months.
In its September 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency projects that average U.S. gasoline prices will slide from about $3.10 per gallon this year to $2.90 per gallon in 2026.
The decline reflects steep drops in crude oil prices. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is forecast to fall from $68 per barrel in August to $59 in the final quarter of 2025, before dipping to around $50 early next year.
Rising output from OPEC+ members and other major producers like the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana is pushing inventories to levels not seen in years.
GasBuddy counts 17 states with average prices below $3 per gallon fewer than weve seen in recent months, Patrick DeHaan, head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy, said in the companys blog. However, with the transition back to winter gasoline just a week away for most areas, those increases may be short-lived, with potential relief arriving toward the end of the month. Additionally, OPEC+ announced an increase in oil production starting in October, which could help keep oil prices lower for longer.
Lowest gas costs in decades
With fuel prices trending lower, American households are expected to spend a historically small share of their income on gasoline. The EIA estimates that gasoline expenditures will fall below 2% of disposable personal income this yearthe lowest level since at least 2005, outside of the pandemic-driven collapse in 2020.
That shift could free up billions of dollars in consumer spending for other goods and services. The decline in gasoline costs comes on top of steady growth in disposable incomes, which have risen by about 4% annually since 2022.
Demand will likely increase
For the first time in several outlooks, the EIA now expects U.S. gasoline consumption to tick up in 2026. The reversal is driven partly by a larger-than-expected working-age population and the stimulative effect of lower prices. Vehicle miles traveled are projected to rise 0.7% next year, translating into a 0.3% increase in fuel use.
Although gasoline demand in the U.S. has been relatively inelastic historically, the EIA estimates that the scale of the expected price decline will modestly boost consumption.
Posted: 2025-09-10 12:51:22