One economist thinks weve been in a rolling recession since 2022

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a staggering downward revision of 911,000 fewer jobs than initially reported between April 2024 and March 2025, marking the largest such adjustment on record.
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The biggest employment reductions occurred in leisure and hospitality (-176,000), professional and business services (-158,000), and retail trade (-126,200), among other sectors.
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The revision intensified political tensions, with critics labeling BLS data manipulation. Yet economists emphasize that these adjustments are routine, based on more complete administrative data, with final benchmark figures expected in February 2026.
If youve felt that the economy has been in worse shape the last couple of years than economists were telling us, youre probably right.
In a dramatic revision, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has revealed that the American economy added 911,000 fewer jobs in the year through March 2025 than originally reported. This marks the largest preliminary downward adjustment in U.S. employment history, more than double last years revision.
The revision slashes previously reported average monthly job gains from approximately 147,000 to just over 70,000a sobering reflection of a labor market far weaker than presumed.
Where the most jobs were lost
Data show substantial losses across key industries:
Sector |
Jobs Revised () |
Leisure and Hospitality |
176,000 |
Professional & Business Services |
158,000 |
Retail Trade |
126,200 |
Other areas, such as manufacturing and information, also saw notable adjustments.
Politics meets statistics
The timing of the revisions sparked intense political criticism. President Trump, who recently dismissed BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, cited the revisions to criticize the agency, claiming the data had been "rigged" to harm his administration, although no credible evidence supports this accusation.
In light of the major revision, the August employment report showing a smaller-than-expected addition of just 22,000 jobs could be cause for concern. However, Michael Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist and CIO for Morgan Stanley, is less concerned.
In a note, Wilson said the U.S. has likely been in a rolling recession since 2022. The good news, according to Wilson, is that he believes the economy is now transitioning to a recovery phase. Wilson concludes that employment data is perhaps the most backward-looking of all the economic series, failing to show the state of the economy in real time.
Posted: 2025-09-10 12:03:36