But the findings are at odds with an earlier consumer sentiment survey
of ConsumerAffairs-
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 93.0 in June, a 5.4-point fall from May.
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The Expectations Index fell to 69.0, remaining below the recession-signaling threshold of 80.
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Declines in confidence were observed across all age, income, and political groups.
Different researchers try to take consumers pulse each month, and usually their findings are similar. But not this month.
The Conference Boards Consumer Confidence Index fell by 5.4 points in June to a reading of 93, giving up much of Mays gains. But earlier this month, the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers showed the Index of Consumer Sentiment rose more than 15% from May, though it was still down 11.3% year-over-year.
The decline in the Conference Boards Consumer Confidence Index was reflected in both consumers present-day assessments and their future outlook, raising fresh concerns about the possibility of a recession.
Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of Mays sharp gains, said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist for Global Indicators at The Conference Board. The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers' assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration.
The Present Situation Index, which measures how consumers perceive current business and labor market conditions, declined by 6.4 points to 129.1. Only 19.0% of respondents described current business conditions as good, down from 21.4% in May, while those seeing conditions as bad rose to 15.3%.
Perceptions of the labor market also softened:
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29.2% said jobs were plentiful, down from 31.1% in May.
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18.1% said jobs were hard to get, a slight improvement from 18.4%.
Despite six consecutive months of declining sentiment about job availability, consumer assessments remain relatively positivean indication of the labor markets continued resilience.
Recession risks
The Expectations Index, which gauges the short-term outlook for income, business, and employment conditions, fell to 69.0well below the 80 threshold often associated with oncoming recessions.
Key declines included:
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Only 16.7% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, down from 19.9%.
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Optimism about more jobs fell to 15.4%, while expectations for fewer jobs stood at 25.9%.
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16.3% expected higher incomes, down from 18.6%.
While assessments of current personal finances remained solid, expectations for future family finances improved to a four-month high, offering a glimmer of optimism amid broader economic concern.
Consumers open-ended responses highlighted tariffs, inflation, and high prices as the top issues shaping their views of the economy. While concerns about inflation persisted, more consumers reported signs of easing price pressures. Average 12-month inflation expectations cooled to 6.0%, down from 6.4% in May and 7.0% in April.
Mentions of geopolitical tensions and social unrest increased slightly but remained relatively low on the list of economic concerns.
Spending plans showed mixed signals:
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Car buying intentions remained at their highest levels since December 2024.
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Home buying intentions declined.
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Plans to purchase big-ticket items like appliances ticked upward slightly, while electronics dropped.
Service sector intentions weakened broadly, except in categories like dining out, motor vehicle services, museum visits, and fitness, which all saw increased consumer interest. Travel intentions held steady, though more consumers planned international trips, while domestic travel interest declined.
Posted: 2025-06-24 15:47:48
